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Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Kutno

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tomaszow Mazowiecki play Kutno in the III Liga - Group I 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tomaszow Mazowiecki averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. Kutno averaged 1.39 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. In past meetings, Tomaszow Mazowiecki won 1, Kutno won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 27, 2022 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Tomaszow Mazowiecki and 1.19 for Kutno. This points to a Tomaszow Mazowiecki double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
15%
Draws
36%
Kutno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Tomaszow Mazowiecki picked up more points recently compared to Kutno.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 95%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 20%
Kutno Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 86%
Second Half Goal 90%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tomaszow Mazowiecki Kutno
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 12 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.87 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.65 2.39

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Kutno
2:0
Oct 23, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Kutno vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:1
May 15, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Kutno
0:4
Sep 12, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Kutno vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Morenkov K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pecyna D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Kutno Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomaszow Mazowiecki 48 / 100
Kutno 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Kutno

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tomaszow Mazowiecki or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tomaszow Mazowiecki attacking → ← attacking Kutno

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tomaszow Mazowiecki scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Kutno let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Tomaszow Mazowiecki went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kutno lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 27
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Polonia Warszawa36263780:2781
2Legionowo36248476:3980
3Swit Mazowiecki361781158:4659
4Legia II3616101077:5558
5Blonianka Blonie361761361:6257
6Tomaszow Mazowiecki361681263:4856
7LKS Lodz II361591263:5254
8Ursus Warszawa361581353:6353
9Jagiellonia II361641666:5852
10Bron Radom361561548:5551
11Unia Skierniewice361541760:5849
12Pelikan3612101457:4646
13Pilica Bialobrzegi361361757:7245
14Kutno3611101549:6443
15Mamry Gizycko361332043:6842
16GKS Wikielec3610121442:5342
17Znicz Biala Piska361261855:6942
18Sokol Aleksandrow Lodz365102136:6425
19Wissa Szczuczyn36492328:7321