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Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Legionowo

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tomaszow Mazowiecki play Legionowo in the III Liga - Group I 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tomaszow Mazowiecki averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Legionowo averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Tomaszow Mazowiecki won 2, Legionowo won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2024 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Tomaszow Mazowiecki and 1.19 for Legionowo. This points to a Tomaszow Mazowiecki double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
31%
Draws
23%
Legionowo
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Tomaszow Mazowiecki picked up more points recently compared to Legionowo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 20%
Legionowo Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tomaszow Mazowiecki Legionowo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.93 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.93

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Legionowo
3:1
Oct 7, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Legionowo vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:2
May 6, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Legionowo vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:0
Oct 1, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Legionowo
1:1
Apr 9, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Legionowo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Snopczynski B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ziarek A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Legionowo Compare

Top Goalscorer Szwed M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomaszow Mazowiecki 45 / 100
Legionowo 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Legionowo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tomaszow Mazowiecki or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tomaszow Mazowiecki attacking → ← attacking Legionowo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tomaszow Mazowiecki scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Legionowo let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Tomaszow Mazowiecki went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Legionowo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 24
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki342374106:3276
2Unia Skierniewice34198778:4665
3Legia II34198770:4065
4Swit Mazowiecki341511870:5256
5GKS Belchatow341681058:4956
6Tomaszow Mazowiecki341581166:5453
7Pelikan341571252:4052
8LKS Lomza341461452:5148
9Bron Radom3412121039:4348
10Warta Sieradz341351643:4844
11GKS Wikielec3411101337:4643
12MKS Mlawa341191443:5042
13Jagiellonia II341261648:5842
14Victoria Sulejowek341181541:4841
15Olimpia Zambrow3410101452:4840
16Concordia Elblag34862037:9830
17Legionowo34762141:7127
18Pilica Bialobrzegi34472330:8919