Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026

Tomaszow Mazowiecki

2 - 1

Zabkovia Zabki

Our Tip

Match Events

46'

Bogus B.

67'

Pienkowski M.

83'

Kalisz K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tomaszow Mazowiecki in this III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tomaszow Mazowiecki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Tomaszow Mazowiecki

11%

Draws

80%

Zabkovia Zabki

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Zabkovia Zabki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Tomaszow Mazowiecki have won more games recently than Zabkovia Zabki.
Win probability leans Zabkovia Zabki's way, sitting at 80%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 13%

Zabkovia Zabki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Zabkovia Zabki
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	11	7
Draws	7	5
Losses	12	17
Goals Scored	1.63	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.88	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 III Liga - Group I

Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Zabkovia Zabki

Possession: 57% - 48% Cards: 1 - 4

2:1

Oct 4, 2025 III Liga - Group I

Zabkovia Zabki vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Possession: 58% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogus B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Pienkowski M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Zabkovia Zabki Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalisz K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomaszow Mazowiecki 11 / 100

Zabkovia Zabki 74 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tomaszow Mazowiecki Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZAB Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tomaszow Mazowiecki scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Zabkovia Zabki let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Tomaszow Mazowiecki remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tomaszow Mazowiecki VS Zabkovia Zabki

1.63 Goals Scored 1.5

1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88

100% Over 1.5 75%

75% Over 2.5 63%

63% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Legia II	34	27	3	4	82:29	84
2	LKS Lomza	34	22	5	7	77:31	71
3	Warta Sieradz	34	21	8	5	64:34	71
4	Suwalki	34	20	5	9	64:43	65
5	Troszyn	34	17	6	11	75:47	57
6	Plock II	34	16	8	10	56:51	56
7	Widzew Lodz II	34	17	3	14	70:64	54
8	Jagiellonia II	34	14	7	13	46:45	49
9	Tomaszow Mazowiecki	34	13	8	13	64:55	47
10	Zabkovia Zabki	34	13	5	16	72:64	44
11	Swit Mazowiecki	34	12	5	17	51:66	41
12	MKS Mlawa	34	11	7	16	55:59	40
13	Olimpia Elblag	34	10	8	16	45:61	38
14	GKS Wikielec	34	10	7	17	40:54	37
15	Bron Radom	34	9	9	16	40:57	36
16	GKS Belchatow	34	9	7	18	50:76	34
17	Wasilkow	34	7	4	23	40:79	25
18	Znicz Biala Piska	34	4	3	27	27:103	15