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Tombense vs America MG Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida, Tombos
Tombense Logo

Tombense

3 - 3
FT
America MG Logo

America MG

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
de Deus C. d. A.
5'
Wesley
22'
Dyego
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-3. This leg finished 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tombense
30%
Draws
23%
America MG
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tombense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Tombense have won more games recently than America MG.
  • Win probability leans Tombense's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Tombense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor America MG, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tombense Clean Sheet 68%
America MG Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tombense America MG
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 7
Draws 11 5
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.23 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Tombense vs America MG
3:3
Feb 8, 2025 Mineiro
Tombense vs America MG
1:0
Mar 2, 2024 Mineiro
Tombense vs America MG
0:1
Mar 4, 2023 Mineiro
America MG vs Tombense
3:1
Mar 26, 2022 Mineiro
America MG vs Tombense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tombense Compare

Top Goalscorer de Deus C. d. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Juan Rocha
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

America MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Jesus P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tombense 86 / 100
America MG 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tombense America MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tombense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America MG's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.

Tombense scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Tombense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tombense VS America MG
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tombense

(Home)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 6

America MG

(Away)
28 Sept
America MG
0 : 1
EC Juventude
18 Sept
Vila Nova FC
1 : 0
America MG
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
09 Sept
America MG
2 : 1
Nautico
05 Sept
CRB
3 : 1
America MG
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)