Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ton Pentre vs Risca United

Wales Wales

Division 1
Wed, Apr 8, 2020
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ton Pentre host Risca United in the Division 1. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Ton Pentre at 1.63 goals for, 2.42 against; Risca United at 1.52 for, 1.81 against. Head-to-head, Ton Pentre have won 2 to Risca United's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 8, 2020, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 2.69, favoring Ton Pentre. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ton Pentre
15%
Draws
34%
Risca United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ton Pentre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Risca United have won more games recently than Ton Pentre.
  • Ton Pentre are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ton Pentre Clean Sheet 10%
Risca United Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ton Pentre Risca United
Matches Played 19 31
Wins 7 9
Draws 2 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.63 1.52
Goals Conceded 2.42 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2020 Division 1
Ton Pentre vs Risca United
0:0
Nov 15, 2019 Division 1
Risca United vs Ton Pentre
2:0
Feb 11, 2017 Division 1
Ton Pentre vs Risca United
4:1
Sep 24, 2016 Division 1
Risca United vs Ton Pentre
1:2
Apr 30, 2016 Division 1
Ton Pentre vs Risca United
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ton Pentre 34 / 100
Risca United 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ton Pentre Risca United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Risca United let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Ton Pentre found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (19 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Risca United registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ton Pentre VS Risca United
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
4 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ton Pentre

(Home)
15 Jul
Ton Pentre
1 : 2
Goytre Utd
17 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
6 : 0
Ton Pentre
06 Mar
Croesyceiliog FC
1 : 2
Ton Pentre
22 Feb
Garden Village
0 : 3
Ton Pentre
08 Feb
Trefelin
4 : 1
Ton Pentre
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Risca United

(Away)
21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1
Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5
Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2
Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1
Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3
Risca United
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