Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Kennedy G.
26'
26'
Appiah K.
45'
45'
Baker F.
AI Match Summary
The National League South game between Tonbridge and Ebbsfleet finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ebbsfleet.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tonbridge
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Ebbsfleet haven't matched Tonbridge's recent run of results.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Tonbridge taking it.
- Regular National League South form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Ebbsfleet have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 20%
Ebbsfleet Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tonbridge | Ebbsfleet |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 National League South
Tonbridge vs Ebbsfleet
1:2
Apr 3, 2026 National League South
Tonbridge vs Ebbsfleet
1:2
Dec 26, 2025 National League South
Ebbsfleet vs Tonbridge
1:0
Jul 23, 2024 Club Friendly
Tonbridge vs Ebbsfleet
0:3
Jul 7, 2023 Club Friendly
Tonbridge vs Ebbsfleet
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tonbridge Compare
Top Goalscorer Baker F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Ebbsfleet Compare
Top Goalscorer Kennedy G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Appiah K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tonbridge 40 / 100
Ebbsfleet 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tonbridge Ebbsfleet
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tonbridge Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tonbridge found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Defensive concern: Ebbsfleet conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Tonbridge remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tonbridge VS Ebbsfleet
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Tonbridge
(Home) 19 Sept
Tonbridge
2 : 1 Ramsgate
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
08 Sept
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Maidstone
05 Sept
Farnborough
0 : 4 Tonbridge
31 Aug
Tonbridge
5 : 1 Walton & Hersham
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Tonbridge
2 : 1 Ramsgate
08 Sept
Tonbridge
0 : 1 Maidstone
31 Aug
Tonbridge
5 : 1 Walton & Hersham
22 Aug
Tonbridge
0 : 2 Truro
15 Aug
Tonbridge
1 : 2 Torquay
Page 1 of 4
Ebbsfleet
(Away) 19 Sept
Maidenhead
1 : 3 Ebbsfleet
12 Sept
Ebbsfleet
1 : 1 Salisbury
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
05 Sept
Walton & Hersham
0 : 2 Ebbsfleet
31 Jul
Ebbsfleet
1 : 2 Gillingham
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Maidenhead
1 : 3 Ebbsfleet
05 Sept
Walton & Hersham
0 : 2 Ebbsfleet
28 Jul
Cray Valley
2 : 3 Ebbsfleet
14 Jul
Aveley
1 : 4 Ebbsfleet
11 Jul
Wycombe
4 : 0 Ebbsfleet
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Red. | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18:14 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover Ath. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:16 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:9 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:13 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:23 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:1 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9:21 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:24 | 1 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
