Sport Picks

Tondela vs Alverca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal

Taça de Portugal Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Alverca

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Taça de Portugal. Little to choose between these two on current form. Tondela have averaged 1.21 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Alverca's 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded. Past meetings favor Alverca slightly — 0-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 13, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.50 - 1.19) back Alverca to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Tondela

15%

Draws

31%

Alverca

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Tondela come out ahead of Alverca on wins alone.
Model gives Tondela a 54% chance of winning this.
Tondela have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Alverca, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%

Tondela Clean Sheet 20%

Alverca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tondela	Alverca
Matches Played	29	26
Wins	10	9
Draws	8	8
Losses	11	9
Goals Scored	1.21	1.15
Goals Conceded	1.31	1.19
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Liga Portugal

Tondela vs Alverca

1:1

Sep 12, 2025 Liga Portugal

Alverca vs Tondela

1:0

May 11, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

Tondela vs Alverca

1:2

Jan 12, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

Alverca vs Tondela

1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tondela 76 / 100

Alverca 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tondela Alverca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 26 matches.

Tondela found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tondela remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tondela VS Alverca

1.63 Goals Scored 1.13

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

(Home)

10 Oct

Tondela

1 : 0

Torreense

19 Sept

Imortal

1 : 5

Tondela

12 Sept

Portimonense

0 : 2

Tondela

05 Sept

Tondela

3 : 0

FC Porto B

28 Aug

Leiria

2 : 0

Tondela

Page 1 of 6

Alverca

(Away)

19 Sept

Alverca

1 : 0

Rio Ave

12 Sept

Nacional

1 : 3

Alverca

05 Sept

Alverca

1 : 2

Braga

29 Aug

Alverca

1 : 1

Santa Clara

22 Aug

Sporting CP

3 : 1

Alverca

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

SC Salgueiros 2

Sousense 1

TBD -

Feirense -

TBD -

Estoril -

GD Alcochetense 8

Fayal 0

C.F. Benfica 3

Viana Alentejo 0

TBD -

Maritimo -

Imortal -

TBD -

Tondela -

TBD -

Alverca -

Ermesinde 1

Paredes 3

Maria de Fonte 1

Uniao Nogueirense 0

TBD -

Famalicao -

Beira Mar 4

Uniao Lamas 3

Lusitano GC 1

CF Os Belenenses 2

TBD -

Arouca -

Fazendense 1

Mocarriense 0

TBD -

Figueirense -

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Malveira 2

Mafra 3

TBD -

Tirsense -

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Santarem -

TBD -

Merelinense 2

Atletico Arcos 0

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Caldas SC 1

Sintrense 3

TBD -

AFS -

TBD -

Moreirense -

ACDR Lamelas -

TBD -

Portalegrense 0

Santo Antonio 3

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Anca -

TBD -

Sanjoanense 3

Pacos de Brandao 0

TBD -

Nacional -

Rebordosa 2

FC Alpendorada 3

Macao 5

CF Os Gavionenses 0

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Serpa 2

Grandolense 0

Castrense 0

Louletano 1

TBD -

Rio Ave -

Fatima 3

SB Castelo Branco 1

TBD -

Vinhais -

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

Sacavenense 5

SC Angrense 0

TBD -

SC Farense -

Regua 0

AD Marco 09 1

Maia Lidador 1

Vila Mea 0

1º Dezembro 0

Real SC 1

TBD -

Academica -

CDC Montalegre 0

Ponte da Barca 1

TBD -

Amarante FC -

O Elvas CAD 9

Sao Roque 0

TBD -

Leiria -

Rebordelo 0

GD Braganca 4

Celoricense 1

Pevidem 0

Montijo 0

Atletico CP 4

TBD -

Lagoa -

Bombarralense -

TBD -

Vizela -

Ac. Fundao 0

Guarda FC 6

TBD -

Chaves -

UD Ovarense -

TBD -

Fornos de Algodres 0

Os Marialvas 4

Estrela Calheta -

TBD -

SC Vianense 8

Minas de Argozelo 0

Cinfaes 1

SC Espinho 0

TBD -

Leixoes -

Oliveirense 4

Penalva do Castelo 0

TBD -

Penafiel -

Covilha 0

Mortagua FC 1

TBD -

Leca -

Nogueirense 1

Naval 1893 3

TBD -

FC Felgueiras -

Pacos Ferreira 0

AD Fafe 1

TBD -

Lajense -

Olhanense -

TBD -

Messejanense 0

Portel 8

Oliveira Hospital 1

GD Sourense 0

Uniao Montemor 1

Juv. Evora 4

SC Barreiro 2

FC Madalena 5

TBD -

Lusitania FC -

Correlha 1

AD Limianos 4

Ferreiras 0

Aljustrelense 3

Alcains 1

Sertanense 0

TBD -

Vitoria Setubal -

Amora -

TBD -

Uniao Da Serra 5

Uniao de Pombal 0

Machico 2

Camacha 3

Florgrade 1

Sao Joao de Ver 0

Castro Daire -

TBD -

Portimonense -

Vila Pouca -

TBD -

Brito -

GD Os Nazarenos 0

Vitoria Sernache 3

Varzim 5

Trofense 1

TBD -

1/64-finals

SC Salgueiros 1

Feirense 0

TBD -

Estoril -

GD Alcochetense 2

C.F. Benfica 0

TBD -

Maritimo -

Imortal 1

Tondela 5

TBD -

Alverca -

Paredes 5

Maria de Fonte 1

TBD -

Famalicao -

Beira Mar 0

CF Os Belenenses 2

TBD -

Arouca -

Fazendense 6

Figueirense 1

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Mafra 3

Tirsense 2

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Santarem 5

Merelinense 0

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Sintrense 0

AFS 2

TBD -

Moreirense -

ACDR Lamelas 4

Santo Antonio 1

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Anca 1

Sanjoanense 4

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada 3

Macao 0

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Serpa 1

Louletano 2

TBD -

Rio Ave -

Fatima 4

Vinhais 1

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

Sacavenense 0

SC Farense 1

AD Marco 09 1

Maia Lidador 0

Real SC 1

Academica 4

Ponte da Barca 0

Amarante FC 2

O Elvas CAD 0

Leiria 2

GD Braganca 6

Celoricense 1

Atletico CP 4

Lagoa 1

Bombarralense 0

Vizela 1

Guarda FC 2

Chaves 3

UD Ovarense 0

Os Marialvas 1

Estrela Calheta 1

SC Vianense 3

Cinfaes 0

Leixoes 4

Oliveirense 1

Penafiel 2

Mortagua FC 0

Leca 2

Naval 1893 0

FC Felgueiras 2

AD Fafe 4

Lajense 0

Olhanense 1

Portel 0

Oliveira Hospital 3

Juv. Evora 2

FC Madalena 1

Lusitania FC 3

AD Limianos 3

Aljustrelense 0

Alcains 0

Vitoria Setubal 2

Amora 3

Uniao Da Serra 4

Camacha 0

Florgrade 1

Castro Daire 0

Portimonense 1

Vila Pouca 0

Brito 5

Vitoria Sernache 2

Varzim 1

TBD -

1/32-finals

SC Salgueiros -

Estoril -

GD Alcochetense -

Maritimo -

Tondela -

Alverca -

Paredes -

Famalicao -

CF Os Belenenses -

Arouca -

Fazendense -

Estrela da Amadora -

Mafra -

Santa Clara -

Santarem -

Gil Vicente -

AFS -

Moreirense -

ACDR Lamelas -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Sanjoanense -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada -

Casa Pia -

Louletano -

Rio Ave -

Fatima -

Academico Viseu -

SC Farense -

AD Marco 09 -

Academica -

Amarante FC -

Leiria -

GD Braganca -

Atletico CP -

Vizela -

Chaves -

Os Marialvas -

SC Vianense -

Leixoes -

Penafiel -

Leca -

FC Felgueiras -

AD Fafe -

Olhanense -

Oliveira Hospital -

Lusitania FC -

AD Limianos -

Vitoria Setubal -

Uniao Da Serra -

Florgrade -

Portimonense -

Brito -

Vitoria Sernache -

TBD -

1/16-finals

TBD -

1/8-finals

TBD -

Quarter-finals

TBD -

Semi-finals

TBD -

Final

TBD -

Tondela vs Alverca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal

Tondela

Alverca

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

Alverca

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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