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Tonga vs New Zealand U23 Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Zealand U23 in this Pacific Games 2019 matchup, with the score ending 0-13 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Zealand U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Tonga
15%
Draws
68%
New Zealand U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Zealand U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • New Zealand U23 have won more games recently than Tonga.
  • Win probability leans New Zealand U23's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Tonga Clean Sheet 10%
New Zealand U23 Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga New Zealand U23
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 4 19
Draws 2 3
Losses 23 4
Goals Scored 1 3.77
Goals Conceded 3.9 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 3.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games
Tonga vs New Zealand U23
0:13

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga 10 / 100
New Zealand U23 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga New Zealand U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Zealand U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 13.00 goals.

Tonga found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

New Zealand U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 26 matches.

Tonga has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tonga VS New Zealand U23
1 Goals Scored 3.88
3 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga

(Home)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
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New Zealand U23

(Away)
18 Jul
Uzbekistan U23
3 : 1
New Zealand U23
09 Sept
New Zealand U23
9 : 0
Fiji U23
06 Sept
New Zealand U23
8 : 0
Vanuatu U23
30 Aug
New Zealand U23
3 : 1
Fiji U23
27 Aug
New Zealand U23
3 : 0
Papua New Guinea U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand U23 4 3 1 0 20:1 10
2 Papua New Guinea 4 3 0 1 16:2 9
3 Vanuatu 4 2 1 1 25:2 7
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 3:22 3
5 Tonga 4 0 0 4 0:37 0
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 5 5 0 0 22:0 15
2 Fiji 5 3 1 1 25:7 10
3 Tahiti 5 3 0 2 19:6 9
4 Solomon Islands 5 2 1 2 30:9 7
5 American Samoa 5 0 1 4 2:36 1
6 Tuvalu 5 0 1 4 2:42 1
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)