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Tonga vs Vanuatu Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu in this Pacific Games 2019 matchup, with the score ending 0-14 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vanuatu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Tonga
20%
Draws
58%
Vanuatu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vanuatu lately — more wins on the board than Tonga.
  • Model gives Vanuatu a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Pacific Games 2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • Vanuatu have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Tonga Clean Sheet 13%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga Vanuatu
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 5 20
Draws 2 6
Losses 23 14
Goals Scored 1.13 3
Goals Conceded 3.77 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2019 Pacific Games
Tonga vs Vanuatu
0:14
Dec 6, 2017 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs Tonga
5:0
Sep 3, 2007 World Championship
Tonga vs Vanuatu
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga 22 / 100
Vanuatu 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga Vanuatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 8.00 goals as a typical output.

Vanuatu has conceded goals in 70% of their last 40 outings.

Attacking prowess: Tonga scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Tonga went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tonga VS Vanuatu
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga

(Home)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
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Vanuatu

(Away)
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Solomon Islands
3 : 3
Vanuatu
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
Page 1 of 8

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand U23 4 3 1 0 20:1 10
2 Papua New Guinea 4 3 0 1 16:2 9
3 Vanuatu 4 2 1 1 25:2 7
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 3:22 3
5 Tonga 4 0 0 4 0:37 0
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 5 5 0 0 22:0 15
2 Fiji 5 3 1 1 25:7 10
3 Tahiti 5 3 0 2 19:6 9
4 Solomon Islands 5 2 1 2 30:9 7
5 American Samoa 5 0 1 4 2:36 1
6 Tuvalu 5 0 1 4 2:42 1
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)