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Tonga W vs New Caledonia W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games Women 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Pacific Games Women 2019 game between Tonga W and New Caledonia W finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tonga W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Tonga W
15%
Draws
28%
New Caledonia W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • New Caledonia W's 2.08 goals per match outpaces what Tonga W have produced (1.17).
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Tonga W taking it.
  • Regular Pacific Games Women 2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 15%
New Caledonia W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga W New Caledonia W
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 8 8
Draws 2 3
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 1.17 2.08
Goals Conceded 3.47 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2019 Pacific Games Women
Tonga W vs New Caledonia W
3:2
Jul 11, 2015 Pacific Games Women
New Caledonia W vs Tonga W
6:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga W 35 / 100
New Caledonia W 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga W New Caledonia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Caledonia W let in goals in 85% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

New Caledonia W's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Tonga W scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tonga W VS New Caledonia W
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga W

(Home)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
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New Caledonia W

(Away)
20 Sept
New Caledonia W
1 : 4
Papua New Guinea W
15 Apr
Indonesia W
4 : 2
New Caledonia W
12 Apr
Thailand W
4 : 0
New Caledonia W
05 Mar
New Caledonia W
0 : 4
Papua New Guinea W
02 Mar
New Caledonia W
2 : 1
Vanuatu W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Samoa W 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Fiji W 4 3 0 1 18:2 9
3 Tonga W 4 2 0 2 16:10 6
4 New Caledonia W 4 1 0 3 13:10 3
5 American Samoa W 4 0 1 3 0:32 1
Promotion - Pacific Games Women 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Papua New Guinea W 4 4 0 0 20:4 12
2 Cook Islands W 4 3 0 1 7:7 9
3 Tahiti W 4 1 1 2 1:6 4
4 Solomon Islands W 4 1 0 3 5:9 3
5 Vanuatu W 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
Promotion - Pacific Games Women 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games Women 2019 (Play Offs)