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Toowong City vs The Lakes FC

Australia Australia

Brisbane Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Toowong City play The Lakes FC in the Brisbane Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toowong City averaged 2.19 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. The Lakes FC averaged 2.7 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. In past meetings, Toowong City won 0, The Lakes FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 24, 2021 ended 5:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Toowong City and 2.13 for The Lakes FC. This points to a The Lakes FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Toowong City
19%
Draws
46%
The Lakes FC
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: The Lakes FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Toowong City picked up more points recently compared to The Lakes FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 95%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Toowong City Clean Sheet 10%
The Lakes FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 86%
Second Half Goal 90%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toowong City The Lakes FC
Matches Played 31 23
Wins 14 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 2.19 2.7
Goals Conceded 1.87 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2021 Brisbane Premier League
The Lakes FC vs Toowong City
5:2
Mar 27, 2021 Brisbane Premier League
Toowong City vs The Lakes FC
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toowong City Compare

Top Goalscorer Owen M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

The Lakes FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fearn J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader McCusker J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toowong City 34 / 100
The Lakes FC 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toowong City The Lakes FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: The Lakes FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Toowong City attacking → ← attacking The Lakes FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toowong City scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

The Lakes FC let in goals in 91% of their last 23 matches.

Games between these two average 6.50 goals.

Toowong City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

The Lakes FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 42
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Albany Creek221930102:1860
2Bayside United22142648:2544
3The Lakes FC22133660:4542
4St. George Willawong22122856:3938
5Gravatt22103938:4133
6Acacia Ridge22103942:4733
7Toowong City2295847:4632
8Univ. of Queensland22731227:4624
9Centenary Stormers22651130:4923
10The Gap22451319:4417
11Western Spirit FC22441436:7016
12Brisbane Knights22421629:6414