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Tord vs Vanersborgs FK

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tord play Vanersborgs FK in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tord averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Vanersborgs FK averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Tord won 1, Vanersborgs FK won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Tord and 1.75 for Vanersborgs FK. This points to a Vanersborgs FK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Tord
35%
Draws
37%
Vanersborgs FK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vanersborgs FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Tord picked up more points recently compared to Vanersborgs FK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Tord Clean Sheet 12%
Vanersborgs FK Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tord Vanersborgs FK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 9
Draws 14 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.27 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Tord vs Vanersborgs FK
2:2
Oct 3, 2025 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Tord vs Vanersborgs FK
2:1
May 9, 2025 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Vanersborgs FK vs Tord
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tord Compare

Top Goalscorer Johansson J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dervishi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Vanersborgs FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tord 28 / 100
Vanersborgs FK 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tord Vanersborgs FK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vanersborgs FK or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tord attacking → ← attacking Vanersborgs FK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tord scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Vanersborgs FK let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Tord went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Vanersborgs FK lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 36
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FBK Karlstad26164662:2952
2Motala26156558:3551
3Herrestads AIF26128651:2744
4Lidkoping26128638:2544
5Ahlafors261010641:3740
6Kongahalla26107957:4237
7Skara261041240:4834
8Grebbestad26951240:4732
9Vanersborgs IF26710944:5031
10Vanersborgs FK26871126:3731
11Tord26791032:3930
12Kumla26861234:5230
13IF Haga26651526:5423
14Tidaholms26471527:5419