Sport Picks

USA

MLS BMO Field, Toronto, ON

Toronto FC

1 - 2

Atlanta United

Our Tip

Match Events

20'

Sub

Kuscevic B. In: Stefanovic L.

Out: Kuscevic B.

22'

Togashi C.

27'

Sub

Togashi C. In: Latte Lath E.

Out: Togashi C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between Toronto FC and Atlanta United finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atlanta United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Toronto FC

28%

Draws

22%

Atlanta United

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Toronto FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Toronto FC have managed 0.88 goals a game lately — Atlanta United are scoring more at 1.38.
50% — that's where the model lands on Toronto FC taking it.
Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%

Toronto FC Clean Sheet 14%

Atlanta United Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Toronto FC	Atlanta United
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	7	7
Draws	12	6
Losses	9	16
Goals Scored	0.88	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.88	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 MLS

Toronto FC vs Atlanta United

1:2

Aug 24, 2025 MLS

Atlanta United vs Toronto FC

0:0

Jul 12, 2025 MLS

Toronto FC vs Atlanta United

1:1

Jun 29, 2024 MLS

Atlanta United vs Toronto FC

2:1

Mar 23, 2024 MLS

Toronto FC vs Atlanta United

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toronto FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Aristizabal E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Atlanta United Compare

Top Goalscorer Miranchuk Al.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Muyumba T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toronto FC 48 / 100

Atlanta United 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Toronto FC Atlanta United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toronto FC's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Atlanta United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Atlanta United's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Toronto FC VS Atlanta United

0.88 Goals Scored 1.38

1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63

75% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toronto FC

(Home)

22 Jul

New England Revolution

0 : 0

Toronto FC

16 Jul

CF Montreal

0 : 0

Toronto FC

24 May

Chicago Fire

2 : 1

Toronto FC

16 May

Charlotte FC

3 : 1

Toronto FC

09 May

Toronto FC

2 : 4

Inter Miami

Page 1 of 6

Atlanta United

(Away)

23 Jul

Charlotte FC

2 : 2

Atlanta United

18 Jul

Nashville SC

1 : 0

Atlanta United

24 May

Columbus Crew

2 : 0

Atlanta United

19 May

Orlando City

4 : 1

Atlanta United

16 May

Orlando City

1 : 1

Atlanta United

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	15	10	2	3	37:16	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	16	10	2	4	34:19	32
3	Los Angeles FC	17	9	3	5	30:18	30
4	Real Salt Lake	15	8	2	5	27:22	26
5	FC Dallas	16	7	5	4	32:24	26
6	Seattle Sounders	15	7	3	5	19:19	24
7	Houston Dynamo	15	7	2	6	20:24	23
8	St. Louis City	16	6	4	6	22:23	22
9	Minnesota United	16	6	4	6	19:24	22
10	Los Angeles Galaxy	17	5	5	7	23:28	20
11	Colorado Rapids	16	6	1	9	26:24	19
12	Portland Timbers	16	5	3	8	29:31	18
13	San Diego FC	16	4	5	7	30:28	17
14	Austin FC	16	4	5	7	22:32	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	16	4	2	10	18:40	14

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League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	16	12	3	1	33:11	39
2	Inter Miami	16	10	4	2	42:30	34
3	Chicago Fire	15	8	2	5	29:19	26
4	New England Revolution	15	8	2	5	22:18	26
5	FC Cincinnati	16	6	5	5	40:40	23
6	New York City	16	6	4	6	27:22	22
7	Charlotte FC	16	6	4	6	26:25	22
8	New York Red Bulls	16	6	4	6	26:35	22
9	DC United	16	4	7	5	22:26	19
10	Orlando City	16	5	2	9	27:44	17
11	Columbus Crew	16	4	4	8	22:25	16
12	Toronto FC	16	3	7	6	22:29	16
13	CF Montreal	16	4	3	9	22:32	15
14	Atlanta United	16	3	3	10	16:26	12
15	Philadelphia Union	16	2	4	10	21:31	10

Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)