Sport Picks

USA

MLS BMO Field

Columbus Crew

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Toronto FC play Columbus Crew in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toronto FC averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Columbus Crew averaged 1.65 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Toronto FC won 1, Columbus Crew won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Toronto FC and 2.31 for Columbus Crew. This points to a Columbus Crew double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Toronto FC

35%

Draws

34%

Columbus Crew

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Columbus Crew

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Toronto FC picked up more points recently compared to Columbus Crew.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 2.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%

Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%

Columbus Crew Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Toronto FC	Columbus Crew
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	7	11
Draws	14	8
Losses	9	12
Goals Scored	1.5	1.65
Goals Conceded	1.63	1.35
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.63	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 MLS

Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew

Possession: 51% - 44% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Sep 20, 2025 MLS

Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 1 - 4

1:1

Aug 16, 2025 MLS

Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew

Possession: 51% - 51% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly

Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 4 - 3

0:0

Sep 18, 2024 MLS

Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew

Possession: 55% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toronto FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cifuentes J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Zimmerman W.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Columbus Crew Compare

Top Goalscorer Abou Ali W.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toronto FC 30 / 100

Columbus Crew 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Toronto FC Columbus Crew

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Columbus Crew or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Toronto FC attacking → ← attacking Columbus Crew

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toronto FC scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Columbus Crew let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Toronto FC went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Columbus Crew lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 41

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7