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Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

82' Event
Bolivar M.

AI Match Summary

Arenas Armilla in this Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Torre del Mar
30%
Draws
37%
Arenas Armilla
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Arenas Armilla have won more games recently than Torre del Mar.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Torre del Mar taking it.
  • Arenas Armilla arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Arenas Armilla, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Torre del Mar Clean Sheet 68%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Torre del Mar Arenas Armilla
Matches Played 33 34
Wins 12 16
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla
0:1
May 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar
1:0
Jan 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Torre del Mar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Bolivar M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Torre del Mar 59 / 100
Arenas Armilla 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Torre del Mar Arenas Armilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Torre del Mar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Torre del Mar found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Arenas Armilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 34 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Torre del Mar has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Torre del Mar VS Arenas Armilla
1 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Torre del Mar

(Home)
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
06 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
29 Aug
Torre del Mar
4 : 0
Marbella
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Arenas Armilla

(Away)
27 Sept
Arenas Armilla
3 : 3
Huetor Vega
20 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Motril 1
Churriana de la Vega 1
Torre del Mar 0
Arenas Armilla 2
Final
Motril 1
Arenas Armilla 2