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Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Dani Gonzalez

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 game between Torre del Mar and Churriana de la Vega finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Torre del Mar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Torre del Mar
15%
Draws
51%
Churriana de la Vega
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Churriana de la Vega

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Torre del Mar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Torre del Mar have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Torre del Mar Clean Sheet 19%
Churriana de la Vega Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Torre del Mar Churriana de la Vega
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 8
Draws 9 10
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega
1:0
Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Churriana de la Vega vs Torre del Mar
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Torre del Mar Compare

Top Goalscorer Dani Gonzalez
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Churriana de la Vega Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Torre del Mar 32 / 100
Churriana de la Vega 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Torre del Mar Churriana de la Vega

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Churriana de la Vega Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Torre del Mar found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Churriana de la Vega conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Churriana de la Vega lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Torre del Mar VS Churriana de la Vega
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Torre del Mar

(Home)
04 Oct
Torre del Mar
0 : 1
Arenas Armilla
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
06 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
Page 1 of 6

Churriana de la Vega

(Away)
04 Oct
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 3
Churriana de la Vega
27 Sept
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 3
UD San Pedro
20 Sept
CD Alhaurino
2 : 1
Churriana de la Vega
13 Sept
Churriana de la Vega
4 : 1
Malaga Juniors
06 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Melilla 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
2 Marbelli 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Arenas Armilla 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
4 Motril 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
5 Malaga B 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
6 Almeria B 5 3 1 1 9:3 10
7 UD San Pedro 5 3 0 2 7:8 9
8 Granada CF B 5 2 1 2 7:4 7
9 CD Alhaurino 6 2 1 3 5:7 7
10 Churriana de la Vega 5 2 0 3 9:9 6
11 Atletico de Porcuna 5 2 0 3 6:14 6
12 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Huetor Vega 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Torre del Mar 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
15 Atletico de Marbella 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
16 Cantoria 5 0 3 2 4:7 3
17 Mancha 5 0 2 3 2:7 2
18 Malaga Juniors 5 0 0 5 3:11 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)