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Torreense vs Casa Pia

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Guilherme Liberato
35'
Sousa D.
45'
Kaly

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Torreense
30%
Draws
23%
Casa Pia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Torreense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Casa Pia haven't matched Torreense's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Torreense taking it.
  • Torreense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Casa Pia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Torreense Clean Sheet 68%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Torreense Casa Pia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.42 0.8
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Torreense
2:0
May 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
Torreense vs Casa Pia
0:0
Dec 17, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Casa Pia vs Torreense
1:2
Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Casa Pia vs Torreense
4:4
Jul 30, 2023 League Cup
Torreense vs Casa Pia
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Torreense 95 / 100
Casa Pia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Torreense Casa Pia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Torreense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Torreense scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Casa Pia has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Torreense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Torreense VS Casa Pia
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Torreense

(Home)
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2
Torreense
11 Sept
Torreense
0 : 0
Leixoes
05 Sept
Benfica B
0 : 2
Torreense
29 Aug
Torreense
0 : 3
Vizela
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2
Torreense
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Casa Pia

(Away)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Torreense 0
Casa Pia 2