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Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

National 1 - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Ako H.
24' Event
Nsundi C.
45' Event
Payet A.

AI Match Summary

The National 1 - Group C game between Toulon and Frejus Saint Raphael finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Toulon
30%
Draws
39%
Frejus Saint Raphael
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Frejus Saint Raphael

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Toulon have managed 1.28 goals a game lately — Frejus Saint Raphael are scoring more at 1.37.
  • Frejus Saint Raphael are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular National 1 - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Toulon Clean Sheet 19%
Frejus Saint Raphael Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulon Frejus Saint Raphael
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 13 7
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.28 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
3:1
May 2, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Toulon
0:1
Jan 10, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
1:1
Mar 22, 2025 National 1 - Group A
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
2:2
Nov 2, 2024 National 1 - Group A
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Toulon
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulon Compare

Top Goalscorer Nsundi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Payet A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Frejus Saint Raphael Compare

Top Goalscorer Ako H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulon 24 / 100
Frejus Saint Raphael 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulon Frejus Saint Raphael

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Frejus Saint Raphael Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulon's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Frejus Saint Raphael conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Toulon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toulon VS Frejus Saint Raphael
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulon

(Home)
11 Nov
Toulon
1 : 0
Limonest
06 Nov
Touraine
2 : 0
Toulon
31 Oct
Toulon
0 : 0
Hyeres
17 Oct
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0
Toulon
03 Oct
Toulon
1 : 0
Troyes II
Page 1 of 7

Frejus Saint Raphael

(Away)
11 Nov
Frejus Saint Raphael
4 : 1
Troyes II
07 Nov
Lyon - La Duchere
2 : 2
Frejus Saint Raphael
17 Oct
Frejus Saint Raphael
4 : 0
Canet Roussillon
03 Oct
Bourges 18
0 : 1
Frejus Saint Raphael
19 Sept
Frejus Saint Raphael
2 : 4
GOAL FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nimes 10 6 3 1 21:7 21
2 Rumilly Vallieres 9 6 0 3 31:14 18
3 Toulon 10 4 4 2 10:7 16
4 Frejus Saint Raphael 9 5 1 3 19:13 16
5 Hauts Lyonnais 10 4 4 2 12:10 16
6 Troyes II 10 5 1 4 12:17 16
7 Hyeres 10 3 6 1 12:6 15
8 Touraine 8 4 3 1 8:4 15
9 Andrezieux 9 3 4 2 12:10 13
10 Saint Priest 10 2 5 3 12:17 11
11 GOAL FC 8 2 4 2 11:9 10
12 Limonest 9 1 5 3 10:14 8
13 Lyon - La Duchere 9 2 2 5 11:18 8
14 Bourges 18 9 1 4 4 5:11 7
15 Canet Roussillon 9 1 3 5 4:15 6
16 Istres 9 0 5 4 2:14 5
17 Chateauroux 8 0 4 4 7:13 4
Promotion - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)