Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael

France France

National 1 - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Ako H.
24' Event
Nsundi C.
45' Event
Payet A.

AI Match Summary

The National 1 - Group C game between Toulon and Frejus Saint Raphael finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Toulon
30%
Draws
35%
Frejus Saint Raphael
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Frejus Saint Raphael come out ahead of Toulon on wins alone.
  • Toulon are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular National 1 - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Toulon Clean Sheet 20%
Frejus Saint Raphael Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulon Frejus Saint Raphael
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 10 11
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.41 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
3:1
May 2, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Toulon
0:1
Jan 10, 2026 National 1 - Group C
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
1:1
Mar 22, 2025 National 1 - Group A
Toulon vs Frejus Saint Raphael
2:2
Nov 2, 2024 National 1 - Group A
Frejus Saint Raphael vs Toulon
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulon Compare

Top Goalscorer Nsundi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Payet A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Frejus Saint Raphael Compare

Top Goalscorer Ako H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulon 58 / 100
Frejus Saint Raphael 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulon Frejus Saint Raphael

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toulon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Toulon stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Toulon found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Frejus Saint Raphael conceded in 76% of 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Toulon VS Frejus Saint Raphael
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulon

(Home)
12 Sept
Toulon
3 : 1
Frejus Saint Raphael
05 Sept
Canet Roussillon
0 : 3
Toulon
29 Aug
Toulon
0 : 0
Bourges 18
22 Aug
GOAL FC
1 : 1
Toulon
31 Jul
Toulon
1 : 1
Aubagne FC
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Frejus Saint Raphael

(Away)
12 Sept
Toulon
3 : 1
Frejus Saint Raphael
05 Sept
Frejus Saint Raphael
2 : 0
Andrezieux
29 Aug
Nimes
3 : 0
Frejus Saint Raphael
22 Aug
Frejus Saint Raphael
3 : 0
Saint Priest
16 May
Frejus Saint Raphael
1 : 0
RC Grasse
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nimes 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Hyeres 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
3 Toulon 4 2 2 0 7:2 8
4 Hauts Lyonnais 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
5 Andrezieux 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
6 Rumilly Vallieres 4 2 0 2 11:6 6
7 Frejus Saint Raphael 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
8 Touraine 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
9 Limonest 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Saint Priest 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
11 Troyes II 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
12 GOAL FC 3 0 3 0 3:3 3
13 Bourges 18 3 0 3 0 1:1 3
14 Chateauroux 4 0 2 2 1:3 2
15 Istres 4 0 2 2 1:5 2
16 Canet Roussillon 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
17 Lyon - La Duchere 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)