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Stadium Background

Toulon vs Thonon-Evian Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

National 2 - Group A 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Scaramozzino A.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Diallo A.
(Penalty)
66' Event
Diaby A.

AI Match Summary

The National 2 - Group A 2023/2024 game between Toulon and Thonon-Evian finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thonon-Evian.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Toulon
35%
Draws
13%
Thonon-Evian
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Toulon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Thonon-Evian come out ahead of Toulon on wins alone.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Toulon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Toulon Clean Sheet 20%
Thonon-Evian Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulon Thonon-Evian
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 11 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.32 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2024 National 1 - Group A
Toulon vs Thonon-Evian
1:2
Sep 16, 2023 National 1 - Group A
Thonon-Evian vs Toulon
3:1
May 13, 2023 National 1 - Group C
Toulon vs Thonon-Evian
3:1
Jan 7, 2023 National 1 - Group C
Thonon-Evian vs Toulon
1:1
Apr 21, 2006 Ligue 3
Toulon vs Thonon-Evian
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Thonon-Evian Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaby A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulon 85 / 100
Thonon-Evian 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulon Thonon-Evian

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toulon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulon found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Thonon-Evian let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Toulon went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toulon VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulon

(Home)
19 Sept
Lyon - La Duchere
3 : 1
Toulon
12 Sept
Toulon
3 : 1
Frejus Saint Raphael
05 Sept
Canet Roussillon
0 : 3
Toulon
29 Aug
Toulon
0 : 0
Bourges 18
22 Aug
GOAL FC
1 : 1
Toulon
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Thonon-Evian

(Away)
16 Nov
Saint-Cyr Collonges
1 : 0
Thonon-Evian
23 Jul
Villefranche
0 : 0
Thonon-Evian
26 Jul
Thonon-Evian
0 : 2
Paris FC
18 May
Cannes
2 : 1
Thonon-Evian
11 May
Thonon-Evian
1 : 1
Aubagne FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aubagne FC 26 14 10 2 33:17 52
2 Le Puy-en-Velay 26 12 10 4 39:24 46
3 RC Grasse 26 10 12 4 31:21 42
4 Jura Sud 26 10 11 5 34:23 41
5 Cannes 26 9 13 4 41:21 40
6 Hyeres 26 9 10 7 37:22 37
7 Frejus Saint Raphael 26 8 12 6 25:19 36
8 Toulon 26 9 8 9 30:29 35
9 Andrezieux 26 9 7 10 26:28 34
10 Ales 26 7 8 11 23:39 29
11 Thonon-Evian 26 7 7 12 27:35 28
12 Chamalieres 26 5 11 10 26:40 26
13 Bourgoin Jallieu 26 4 9 13 24:43 21
14 Toulouse II 26 1 8 17 24:59 11
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