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Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Lyon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Schmidt N.
45'
Nartey N.
63'
Sub
Duranville J. In: Fofana M.
Out: Duranville J.

AI Match Summary

Lyon in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lyon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Toulouse
20%
Draws
51%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Toulouse haven't matched Lyon's recent run of results.
  • Toulouse are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 68%
Lyon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lyon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 3
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.31 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
0:2
May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
1:2
Jan 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Nartey N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fofana M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 50 / 100
Lyon 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toulouse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toulouse scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Lyon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Toulouse has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lyon
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
01 Nov
Marseille
2 : 0
Toulouse
25 Oct
Toulouse
0 : 0
Troyes
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
Monaco
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
Page 1 of 6

Lyon

(Away)
01 Nov
Lyon
2 : 0
Angers
26 Oct
PSG
2 : 0
Lyon
22 Oct
Hoffenheim
3 : 0
Lyon
18 Oct
Lyon
2 : 1
Nice
15 Oct
Lyon
3 : 2
Crystal Palace
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Lille 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
3 Lyon 9 5 2 2 15:7 17
4 Paris FC 9 5 2 2 16:10 17
5 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20:19 16
6 Marseille 9 5 0 4 20:13 15
7 Monaco 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 13:12 14
9 Lens 9 4 1 4 16:13 13
10 Brest 9 3 3 3 16:12 12
11 Lorient 9 3 3 3 7:8 12
12 Toulouse 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
13 Strasbourg 9 3 1 5 17:19 10
14 Auxerre 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
15 Angers 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
16 Troyes 9 2 2 5 7:16 8
17 Le Mans 9 1 4 4 11:18 7
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9:20 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)