Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Lyon

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Methalie D.
Assist: Gboho Y.
26'
Donnum A.
44'
Methalie D.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Toulouse and Lyon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulouse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Toulouse
35%
Draws
45%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lyon come out ahead of Toulouse on wins alone.
  • Lyon are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 16%
Lyon Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lyon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.33 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
0:2
May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
1:2
Jan 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs Toulouse
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Methalie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kamanzi W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lyon Compare

Top Goalscorer Tolisso C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 11 / 100
Lyon 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lyon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lyon has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Toulouse stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lyon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Lorient
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
22 Aug
Toulouse
0 : 2
Lyon
Page 1 of 6

Lyon

(Away)
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
04 Sept
Lyon
3 : 1
Auxerre
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)