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Touring KE vs UD Aretxabaleta

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Touring KE play UD Aretxabaleta in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. It looks like a close match. Recently, Touring KE averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. UD Aretxabaleta averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Touring KE won 1, UD Aretxabaleta won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Touring KE and 1.44 for UD Aretxabaleta. This points to a Touring KE double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Touring KE
30%
Draws
29%
UD Aretxabaleta
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Touring KE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Touring KE picked up more points recently compared to UD Aretxabaleta.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Touring KE Clean Sheet 16%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Touring KE UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Touring KE vs UD Aretxabaleta
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Touring KE
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Touring KE vs UD Aretxabaleta
0:0
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Touring KE
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Touring KE Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferrer K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Touring KE 40 / 100
UD Aretxabaleta 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Touring KE UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Touring KE or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Touring KE attacking → ← attacking UD Aretxabaleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Touring KE scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

UD Aretxabaleta let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Touring KE went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

UD Aretxabaleta lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 38
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Portugalete34246470:2978
2Leioa34187950:3461
3Derio341771054:4058
4Lagun Onak341761154:3457
5Touring KE34169947:3557
6Real Sociedad C341741348:3955
7San Ignacio341671137:2755
8Aurrera de Vitoria341661242:4154
9Alaves C341581157:4053
10UD Aretxabaleta341361556:6145
11SCD Durango3411111235:3644
12Santurtzi349121332:4539
13Eibar C34991644:5336
14Pasaia34991626:4636
15Anorga341141937:5934
16Zamudio34961942:5933
17Zarautz KE34862030:6030
18SD Deusto34672126:4925