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Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2 League Toyama Stadium, Toyama
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
09:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Toyama host Shonan Bellmare in the J2 League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Toyama at 1.93 goals for, 1.43 against; Shonan Bellmare at 1.31 for, 1.28 against. Past meetings favor Shonan Bellmare slightly — 0-5-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 26, 2014, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.44, favoring Toyama. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Toyama
35%
Draws
32%
Shonan Bellmare
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Toyama have won more games recently than Shonan Bellmare.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Toyama taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Shonan Bellmare have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Toyama Clean Sheet 16%
Shonan Bellmare Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toyama Shonan Bellmare
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 17 14
Draws 2 4
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.93 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2014 J2 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Toyama
2:0
Jun 7, 2014 J2 League
Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare
0:1
Oct 28, 2012 J2 League
Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare
0:2
Jun 9, 2012 J2 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Toyama
1:0
Sep 28, 2011 J2 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Toyama
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toyama 66 / 100
Shonan Bellmare 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toyama Shonan Bellmare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toyama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toyama scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Shonan Bellmare conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Toyama went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toyama VS Shonan Bellmare
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toyama

(Home)
03 Oct
Kofu
1 : 2
Toyama
29 Sept
Toyama
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
26 Sept
Toyama
3 : 3
Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2
Toyama
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0
Tochigi City
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Shonan Bellmare

(Away)
07 Oct
FC Tokyo
4 : 0
Shonan Bellmare
03 Oct
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
26 Sept
Imabari
1 : 2
Shonan Bellmare
19 Sept
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1
Blaublitz
12 Sept
Vanraure
0 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omiya Ardija 10 5 5 0 20:9 20
2 Vegalta Sendai 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
3 Albirex Niigata 9 6 1 2 13:13 19
4 Toyama 9 5 2 2 18:9 17
5 Yokohama FC 10 5 2 3 19:13 17
6 Shonan Bellmare 9 4 4 1 10:8 16
7 Oita Trinita 10 3 5 2 11:8 14
8 Fujieda MYFC 10 3 4 3 13:11 13
9 Blaublitz 9 3 4 2 12:10 13
10 Iwata 10 4 1 5 12:13 13
11 Tokushima 10 4 1 5 10:12 13
12 Montedio Yamagata 9 4 0 5 11:8 12
13 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 3 3 3 13:13 12
14 Sagan Tosu 10 3 2 5 9:12 11
15 Tochigi City 10 3 1 6 16:17 10
16 Imabari 10 3 1 6 11:19 10
17 Kofu 10 3 1 6 9:18 10
18 Vanraure 10 3 1 6 6:17 10
19 Iwaki 9 3 0 6 12:17 9
20 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 10 2 2 6 12:19 8
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