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TPS vs Ilves

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Veritas Stadion, Turku
TPS Logo

TPS

1 - 3
FT
Ilves Logo

Ilves

Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Kumpu V.
29'
Talo N.
32'
Hytonen T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Veikkausliiga game between TPS and Ilves finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ilves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
TPS
35%
Draws
20%
Ilves
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: TPS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • TPS have managed 1.29 goals a game lately — Ilves are scoring more at 1.64.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on TPS taking it.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ilves have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
TPS Clean Sheet 20%
Ilves Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric TPS Ilves
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.29 1.64
Goals Conceded 1 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Veikkausliiga
TPS vs Ilves
1:3
Jun 13, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs TPS
1:0
May 27, 2026 Suomen Cup
Ilves vs TPS
1:0
Apr 26, 2023 Suomen Cup
TPS vs Ilves
0:2
Mar 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Ilves vs TPS
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Hradecky M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ilves Compare

Top Goalscorer Hytonen T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pettersson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TPS 67 / 100
Ilves 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
TPS Ilves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TPS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

TPS went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: TPS scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Ilves has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

TPS VS Ilves
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

TPS

(Home)
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
TPS
0 : 0
Inter Turku
14 Aug
VPS
1 : 3
TPS
09 Aug
KuPS
1 : 1
TPS
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Ilves

(Away)
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2
HJK
22 Aug
Ilves
0 : 1
VPS
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
13 Aug
Ilves
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)