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Trabzonspor vs F. Karagumruk

Turkey Turkey

Super Lig 2025/2026 Papara Park, Trabzon
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Onuachu P.
Assist: Tufan O.
21'
Sub
Biraschi D. In: Cinar A.
Out: Biraschi D.
28' Event
Verde D.

AI Match Summary

The Super Lig 2025/2026 game between Trabzonspor and F. Karagumruk finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Trabzonspor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Trabzonspor
44%
Draws
20%
F. Karagumruk
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Trabzonspor come out ahead of F. Karagumruk on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Trabzonspor have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Trabzonspor Clean Sheet 20%
F. Karagumruk Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trabzonspor F. Karagumruk
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 16 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Super Lig
Trabzonspor vs F. Karagumruk
3:1
Sep 27, 2025 Super Lig
F. Karagumruk vs Trabzonspor
3:4
May 8, 2024 Turkish Cup
F. Karagumruk vs Trabzonspor
0:4
Apr 24, 2024 Turkish Cup
Trabzonspor vs F. Karagumruk
3:2
Mar 9, 2024 Super Lig
Trabzonspor vs F. Karagumruk
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trabzonspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Nwaiwu C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Onuachu P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

F. Karagumruk Compare

Top Goalscorer Verde D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trabzonspor 36 / 100
F. Karagumruk 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trabzonspor F. Karagumruk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trabzonspor found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 5.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: F. Karagumruk conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Trabzonspor has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trabzonspor VS F. Karagumruk
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Trabzonspor

(Home)
26 Jul
Trabzonspor
0 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
22 May
Trabzonspor
2 : 1
Konyaspor
17 May
Trabzonspor
0 : 3
Genclerbirligi
13 May
Genclerbirligi
1 : 2
Trabzonspor
09 May
Besiktas
1 : 2
Trabzonspor
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F. Karagumruk

(Away)
16 May
F. Karagumruk
2 : 1
Alanyaspor
09 May
Kocaelispor
0 : 1
F. Karagumruk
03 May
F. Karagumruk
1 : 0
Genclerbirligi
27 Apr
Besiktas
0 : 0
F. Karagumruk
18 Apr
F. Karagumruk
1 : 2
Eyupspor
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Galatasaray34245577:3077
2Fenerbahce342111277:3774
3Trabzonspor34209561:3969
4Besiktas34179859:4060
5Basaksehir34169958:3557
6Goztepe341413742:3255
7Samsunspor341312946:4551
8Rizespor3410111346:5241
9Konyaspor3410101443:5040
10Kocaelispor349101526:3837
11Alanyaspor347161141:4137
12Gaziantep349101543:5837
13Kasimpasa348111533:4935
14Genclerbirligi34971836:4734
15Eyupspor34891733:4833
16Antalyaspor34881833:5532
17Kayserispor346121627:6230
18F. Karagumruk34862031:5430
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig (Main)