Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Trefelin vs Caernarfon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Ynys Park, Cwmafan
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Evans O.
12'
Jones J.
37' Event
Clarke Z.

AI Match Summary

Caernarfon in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Trefelin
15%
Draws
51%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Caernarfon have won more games recently than Trefelin.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Caernarfon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 16
Draws 3 2
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.76 2.17
Goals Conceded 2 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Cymru Premier
Trefelin vs Caernarfon
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clarke Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 34 / 100
Caernarfon 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trefelin scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Caernarfon conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Trefelin stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Caernarfon
1.13 Goals Scored 2.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
06 Nov
Trefelin
1 : 2
Colwyn Bay
30 Oct
Barry Town
3 : 0
Trefelin
23 Oct
Trefelin
0 : 2
Flint Town
17 Oct
Trefelin
4 : 1
Llantwit Major
09 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
1 : 3
Trefelin
Page 1 of 6

Caernarfon

(Away)
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0
Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2
Caernarfon
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1
Briton Ferry
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3
Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2
Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 16 14 2 0 54:6 44
2 Connahs Q. 16 12 2 2 34:9 38
3 Penybont 15 11 3 1 32:11 36
4 Colwyn Bay 16 10 2 4 28:18 32
5 Airbus UK Broughton FC 16 10 0 6 34:24 30
6 Caernarfon 16 9 2 5 42:21 29
7 Barry Town 16 9 2 5 35:29 29
8 Cardiff Metropolitan University 16 7 4 5 29:23 25
9 Cambrian United 16 5 4 7 26:41 19
10 Llandudno FC 16 5 1 10 22:29 16
11 Haverfordwest 16 5 1 10 12:23 16
12 Briton Ferry 16 4 3 9 17:28 15
13 Flint Town 16 4 2 10 19:27 14
14 Ammanford Town 16 3 3 10 13:43 12
15 Trefelin 16 1 3 12 9:38 6
16 Holywell Town FC 15 0 2 13 16:52 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)