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Trefelin vs Cambrian United

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Fox J.
52' Event
Allen J.
59' Event
Eason L.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Trefelin and Cambrian United finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cambrian United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Trefelin
15%
Draws
59%
Cambrian United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cambrian United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Trefelin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cambrian United's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 11%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Cambrian United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 22 20
Draws 1 4
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 2.59 2.24
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cambrian United
0:4
Oct 10, 2025 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trefelin
0:2
Feb 28, 2025 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trefelin
1:3
Nov 2, 2024 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cambrian United
5:2
Apr 20, 2024 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trefelin
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Cambrian United Compare

Top Goalscorer Fox J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Allen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 10 / 100
Cambrian United 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Cambrian United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Trefelin found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Cambrian United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Trefelin remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Cambrian United
3.5 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
88% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
07 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 4
Llandudno FC
31 Jul
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0
Trefelin
25 Jul
Bromsgrove
8 : 0
Trefelin
03 Jul
Carmarthen Town
4 : 2
Trefelin
18 Apr
Newport City
0 : 5
Trefelin
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Cambrian United

(Away)
07 Aug
Cambrian United
1 : 1
Briton Ferry
31 Jul
Barry Town
2 : 1
Cambrian United
10 Jul
Merthyr Town
4 : 2
Cambrian United
26 Jun
Cambrian United
1 : 0
Newport City
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3
Cambrian United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)