Sport Picks
Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 
Match Events
11'
11'
Roberts S.
12'
12'
Saunders C.
20'
20'
Roberts S.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-3. The second leg ended 4-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
30%
54%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cardiff Draconians
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Trefelin carry the better recent record into this one.
- Cardiff Draconians are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Trefelin have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Trefelin, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Trefelin here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Trefelin | Cardiff Draconians |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 10 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Trefelin
0:4
Mar 4, 2026 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians
3:1
Nov 29, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Trefelin Compare
Top Goalscorer Saunders C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Piper R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Cardiff Draconians Compare
Top Goalscorer Roberts S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Trefelin 26 / 100
Cardiff Draconians 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Trefelin Cardiff Draconians
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cardiff Draconians Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cardiff Draconians's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Trefelin scored in 73% of their last 30 games.
Solid form: Trefelin remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Trefelin VS Cardiff Draconians
0.38 Goals Scored 1
3.25 Goals Conceded 1.14
100% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 29%
Recent Form & Match History
Trefelin
(Home) 18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1 Trefelin
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4 Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Trefelin
31 Aug
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Trefelin
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4 Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
28 Aug
Trefelin
1 : 1 Ammanford Town
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2 Caernarfon
07 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 4 Llandudno FC
Page 1 of 3
Cardiff Draconians
(Away) 12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2 Llanelli
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4 Pontypridd United
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
01 Aug
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
Page 1 of 6
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
01 Aug
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
04 Apr
Trethomas Bluebirds
4 : 4 Cardiff Draconians
06 Mar
Ammanford Town
2 : 1 Cardiff Draconians
04 Mar
Trefelin
3 : 1 Cardiff Draconians
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
