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Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds Logo

Trethomas Bluebirds

2 - 4
FT
Caerau Ely Logo

Caerau Ely

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Parker T.
28' Event
Rees O.
32' Event
Hood J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Caerau Ely in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Trethomas Bluebirds
20%
Draws
48%
Caerau Ely
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caerau Ely lately — more wins on the board than Trethomas Bluebirds.
  • Model gives Caerau Ely a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trethomas Bluebirds Caerau Ely
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 17
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.62 2.4
Goals Conceded 2.24 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
2:4
Jan 23, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
1:5
Aug 8, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Trethomas Bluebirds
1:1
Feb 21, 2025 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
1:0
Aug 26, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Trethomas Bluebirds
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trethomas Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Rees O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hood J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Parker T.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Bishop L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trethomas Bluebirds 22 / 100
Caerau Ely 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trethomas Bluebirds Caerau Ely

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Trethomas Bluebirds found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Caerau Ely conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Trethomas Bluebirds went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trethomas Bluebirds VS Caerau Ely
1.75 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Trethomas Bluebirds

(Home)
03 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 3
Pontardawe
26 Sept
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 6

Caerau Ely

(Away)
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0
Afan Lido
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3
Caerau Ely
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 8 6 2 0 25:6 20
2 Aberystwyth 8 6 1 1 22:8 19
3 Pontypridd United 9 6 1 2 23:16 19
4 Caerau Ely 9 5 1 3 21:18 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 11:11 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 20:19 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
8 Treowen 9 4 1 4 18:18 13
9 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 13:17 11
10 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 17:17 10
11 Pontardawe 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
12 Newport City 7 2 2 3 10:6 8
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
14 Caerphilly 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7:20 7
16 Llanelli 10 0 2 8 7:27 2
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