Sport Picks
Match Events
10'
10'
Parker T.
28'
28'
Rees O.
32'
32'
Hood J.
AI Match Summary
Caerau Ely in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caerau Ely.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
35%
46%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caerau Ely
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Caerau Ely lately — more wins on the board than Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Model gives Caerau Ely a 46% chance of winning this.
- Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 16%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Trethomas Bluebirds | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 36 |
| Wins | 5 | 19 |
| Draws | 11 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 2.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.23 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.54 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 14, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
2:4
Jan 23, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
1:5
Aug 8, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Trethomas Bluebirds
1:1
Feb 21, 2025 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau Ely
1:0
Aug 26, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Trethomas Bluebirds
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Trethomas Bluebirds Compare
Top Goalscorer Rees O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hood J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.42
Avg xA / game 0.27
Caerau Ely Compare
Top Goalscorer Parker T.
3 Goals Assists Leader Bishop L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Trethomas Bluebirds 11 / 100
Caerau Ely 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Trethomas Bluebirds Caerau Ely
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.
Trethomas Bluebirds found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Caerau Ely conceded in 67% of 36 recent games.
Trethomas Bluebirds went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Trethomas Bluebirds VS Caerau Ely
0.71 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 0.38
71% Over 1.5 38%
43% Over 2.5 13%
29% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Trethomas Bluebirds
(Home) 14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Llanelli
1 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
14 Jul
Barry Town
5 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
23 Jun
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 3 Penybont
Page 1 of 6
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
23 Jun
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 3 Penybont
04 Apr
Trethomas Bluebirds
4 : 4 Cardiff Draconians
20 Mar
Trethomas Bluebirds
4 : 2 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 3
Caerau Ely
(Away) 14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 8
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
11 Jul
Evesham
2 : 0 Caerau Ely
18 Apr
Pontypridd United
0 : 0 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carmarthen Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Pure Swansea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 | Pontypridd United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:7 | 4 |
| 5 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 7 | Pontardawe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 8 | Newport City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 10 | Treowen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 11 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 | Llanelli | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 14 | Caerphilly | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 | Baglan Dragons | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:8 | 0 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)
