Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Treviso play Luparense FC in the Serie D - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Treviso averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Luparense FC averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Treviso won 3, Luparense FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 22, 2026 ended 0:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Treviso and 1.38 for Luparense FC. This points to a Treviso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

Treviso

20%

Draws

31%

Luparense FC

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Treviso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Treviso picked up more points recently compared to Luparense FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 37%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Treviso Clean Sheet 17%

Luparense FC Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Treviso	Luparense FC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	9
Draws	6	11
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.33	1.1
Goals Conceded	0.83	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group C

Treviso vs Luparense FC

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 2 - 1

0:4

Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Treviso

Possession: 44% - 41% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group C

Treviso vs Luparense FC

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Treviso

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

3:1

Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Treviso

Possession: 43% - 41% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treviso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Diallo C.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Visinoni N.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treviso 48 / 100

Luparense FC 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Treviso Luparense FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Treviso or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19.6%

2.44

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.5%

3.23

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Treviso attacking → ← attacking Luparense FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Treviso scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Luparense FC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Treviso went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Luparense FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 38

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treviso	34	21	6	7	50:25	69
2	Legnago Salus	34	18	7	9	63:41	61
3	Clodiense	34	17	9	8	47:29	60
4	Este	34	14	13	7	40:29	55
5	Mestre	34	14	13	7	37:29	55
6	Cjarlins Muzane	34	13	12	9	41:39	51
7	Brian Lignano	34	16	8	10	58:34	50
8	Conegliano	34	13	11	10	36:28	50
9	Bassano Virtus	34	12	14	8	37:27	50
10	Campodarsego	34	13	9	12	37:34	48
11	Altavilla	34	10	16	8	28:24	46
12	Calvi Noale	34	13	5	16	38:40	44
13	Luparense FC	34	10	13	11	36:39	43
14	Vigasio	34	8	14	12	44:46	38
15	San Luigi	34	8	10	16	33:54	34
16	FC Obermais	34	8	10	16	33:46	34
17	Adriese	34	5	6	23	24:62	18
18	Portogruaro	34	1	8	25	25:81	11