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Treviso vs Novara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Omobono Tenni, Treviso
Sun, Nov 8, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Treviso host Novara in the Serie C - Group A. This one's hard to separate. Novara have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Treviso have conceded 1.07 and scored 0.97. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 0.81) point toward Novara. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Treviso
20%
Draws
40%
Novara
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Novara have won more games recently than Treviso.
  • Win probability leans Treviso's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Treviso Clean Sheet 68%
Novara Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treviso Novara
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treviso 59 / 100
Novara 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treviso Novara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Treviso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Treviso's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Novara conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Treviso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Novara has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Treviso VS Novara
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Treviso

(Home)
01 Nov
Cittadella
1 : 0
Treviso
24 Oct
Treviso
2 : 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
17 Oct
Folgore Caratese
0 : 2
Treviso
11 Oct
Treviso
0 : 1
Ospitaletto
04 Oct
Treviso
0 : 0
Giana Erminio
Page 1 of 6

Novara

(Away)
02 Nov
Novara
1 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
25 Oct
Arzignano
2 : 0
Novara
18 Oct
AlbinoLeffe
2 : 2
Novara
10 Oct
Novara
0 : 2
Cittadella
04 Oct
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1 : 2
Novara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 12 10 0 2 19:6 30
2 Union Brescia 12 7 4 1 23:9 25
3 Trento 12 6 6 0 17:6 24
4 Arzignano 12 6 3 3 17:12 21
5 Ospitaletto 12 5 4 3 18:11 19
6 Treviso 12 5 4 3 12:9 19
7 Alcione Milano 12 4 6 2 21:18 18
8 Lecco 12 4 5 3 18:11 17
9 AlbinoLeffe 12 4 5 3 19:17 17
10 Pergolettese 12 4 5 3 12:12 17
11 Lumezzane 12 3 4 5 13:17 13
12 Desenzano Calvina 12 3 4 5 10:14 13
13 Novara 12 3 4 5 11:16 13
14 Pro Vercelli 12 3 4 5 11:20 13
15 Carpi 12 3 3 6 16:26 12
16 Giana Erminio 12 2 5 5 13:17 11
17 Juventus U23 12 2 5 5 12:19 11
18 Dolomiti Bellunesi 12 2 4 6 8:18 10
19 Renate 12 1 5 6 14:16 8
20 Folgore Caratese 12 1 4 7 11:21 7
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)