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Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Soumare B.
20' Event
Kitwa R.
Assist: Ito
54'

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tripoli SC
35%
Draws
18%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tripoli SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Tripoli SC haven't matched Al Ahed's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Tripoli SC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Tripoli SC Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tripoli SC Al Ahed
Matches Played 33 34
Wins 10 16
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.94 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.73 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed
1:1
Jul 5, 2024 Lebanese Cup
Al Ahed vs Tripoli SC
0:0
Nov 4, 2023 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed
0:1
Oct 8, 2022 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed
0:4
Sep 13, 2021 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tripoli SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Soumare B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.56
Avg xA / game 0.36

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Kitwa R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tripoli SC 50 / 100
Al Ahed 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tripoli SC Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tripoli SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tripoli SC scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Al Ahed let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Tripoli SC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tripoli SC VS Al Ahed
0.33 Goals Scored 1.13
0.33 Goals Conceded 1.13
33% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tripoli SC

(Home)
09 Oct
Tripoli SC
1 : 1
Al Ahed
05 Jul
Al Ahed
:
Tripoli SC
23 May
Al Ghazieh
0 : 0
Tripoli SC
17 May
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Tripoli SC
09 May
Tadamon
0 : 1
Tripoli SC
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Al Ahed

(Away)
09 Oct
Tripoli SC
1 : 1
Al Ahed
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jwayya SC 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Nejmeh SC 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
3 Al Ansar 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
4 Safa 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
5 Tadamon 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
6 Al Ahed 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
7 Tripoli SC 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
8 Al Hikma 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
10 Al Sahel 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
11 Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
12 Al Mabarrah 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - Premier League (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League (Losers stage)