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Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio 20 de Octubre, Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez Logo

Tristan Suarez

Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Quilmes Logo

Quilmes

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tristan Suarez host Quilmes in the Primera Nacional. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Quilmes have shipped 0.93 goals a game lately, while Tristan Suarez have conceded 0.55 and scored 1.07. Head-to-head, Tristan Suarez have won 3 to Quilmes's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.25 - 0.69) back Tristan Suarez to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tristan Suarez
30%
Draws
23%
Quilmes
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tristan Suarez

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tristan Suarez come out ahead of Quilmes on wins alone.
  • Tristan Suarez are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.8%
Tristan Suarez Clean Sheet 20%
Quilmes Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tristan Suarez Quilmes
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1
Goals Conceded 0.55 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Primera Nacional
Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez
0:1
Oct 4, 2025 Primera Nacional
Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez
0:1
May 31, 2025 Primera Nacional
Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes
0:0
Sep 1, 2024 Primera Nacional
Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez
0:1
Apr 14, 2024 Primera Nacional
Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tristan Suarez 76 / 100
Quilmes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tristan Suarez Quilmes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tristan Suarez Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tristan Suarez scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Quilmes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Tristan Suarez has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Quilmes lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tristan Suarez VS Quilmes
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tristan Suarez

(Home)
21 Sept
Tristan Suarez
0 : 0
Atletico Atlanta
16 Sept
San Martin S.J.
0 : 0
Tristan Suarez
12 Sept
Gimnasia y Tiro
0 : 0
Tristan Suarez
05 Sept
Tristan Suarez
2 : 0
San Martin T.
29 Aug
Atl. Rafaela
2 : 1
Tristan Suarez
Page 1 of 6

Quilmes

(Away)
20 Sept
Chacarita Juniors
3 : 0
Quilmes
12 Sept
Quilmes
1 : 0
San Martin S.J.
07 Sept
Nueva Chicago
1 : 0
Quilmes
30 Aug
Quilmes
0 : 1
Temperley
23 Aug
Deportivo Maipu
1 : 0
Quilmes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 30 17 7 6 35:25 58
2 Deportivo Moron 30 16 7 7 48:29 55
3 Godoy Cruz 30 15 7 8 38:26 52
4 Deportivo Madryn 30 13 10 7 44:28 49
5 Colon Santa Fe 30 13 9 8 38:25 48
6 Almirante Brown 30 12 10 8 23:17 46
7 CA Estudiantes 30 11 9 10 27:25 42
8 Ciudad Bolivar 30 9 12 9 24:27 39
9 Los Andes 30 8 13 9 22:20 37
10 Chaco For Ever 30 9 9 12 27:29 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 30 8 12 10 23:26 36
12 Racing Cordoba 30 9 8 13 26:36 35
13 All Boys 30 6 14 10 17:26 32
14 CA Mitre 30 6 14 10 27:37 32
15 Central Norte 30 6 13 11 19:28 31
16 San Miguel 30 6 13 11 24:34 31
17 San Telmo 30 7 10 13 23:34 31
18 Acassuso 30 6 8 16 21:34 26
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 30 14 12 4 31:15 54
2 Temperley 30 14 11 5 36:24 53
3 Gimnasia Jujuy 30 15 8 7 45:36 53
4 Atletico Atlanta 30 15 4 11 34:28 49
5 Midland 30 13 8 9 34:25 47
6 San Martin S.J. 30 12 9 9 33:27 45
7 Gimnasia y Tiro 30 12 9 9 31:27 45
8 Atl. Rafaela 30 11 9 10 25:26 42
9 Deportivo Maipu 30 11 8 11 37:31 41
10 Colegiales 30 11 7 12 29:30 40
11 San Martin T. 30 9 12 9 32:30 39
12 Agropecuario 30 9 9 12 26:34 36
13 Quilmes 30 9 8 13 28:27 35
14 Almagro 30 9 8 13 26:36 35
15 Nueva Chicago 30 8 9 13 22:29 33
16 Patronato 30 5 16 9 24:31 31
17 Chacarita Juniors 30 8 6 16 22:31 30
18 Club Atletico Guemes 30 5 8 17 23:51 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)