Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tritones Vallarta play Leones Negros 2 in the Liga Premier Serie A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tritones Vallarta averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Leones Negros 2 averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Tritones Vallarta won 2, Leones Negros 2 won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Tritones Vallarta and 1.13 for Leones Negros 2. This points to a Tritones Vallarta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Tritones Vallarta

15%

Draws

42%

Leones Negros 2

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tritones Vallarta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Tritones Vallarta picked up more points recently compared to Leones Negros 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 21%

Leones Negros 2 Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tritones Vallarta	Leones Negros 2
Matches Played	31	33
Wins	16	18
Draws	3	2
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	1.23	1.48
Goals Conceded	1.03	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Nov 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Tritones Vallarta vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

Mar 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Tritones Vallarta vs Leones Negros 2

Possession: 41% - 60% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Nov 9, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 53% - 60% Cards: 0 - 4

1:1

Mar 9, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Leones Negros 2 vs Tritones Vallarta

Possession: 49% - 48% Cards: 2 - 4

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tritones Vallarta Compare

Top Goalscorer Suarez A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Leones Negros 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tritones Vallarta 43 / 100

Leones Negros 2 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tritones Vallarta Leones Negros 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tritones Vallarta or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tritones Vallarta attacking → ← attacking Leones Negros 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tritones Vallarta scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Leones Negros 2 let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Tritones Vallarta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Leones Negros 2 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 56

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17