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Trofense vs Leca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Reis N.
8' Event
Diego Fernandes
14'
Gunjo J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between Trofense and Leca finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Trofense
20%
Draws
69%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Leca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Leca a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Trofense Clean Sheet 10%
Leca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Leca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 16
Draws 8 7
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 0.62 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.48 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Leca
1:4
Jan 15, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Trofense vs Leca
0:1
Sep 20, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Leca vs Trofense
0:0
Mar 8, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Trofense vs Leca
2:3
Oct 27, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Trofense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunjo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Reis N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diego Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 10 / 100
Leca 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leca let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Trofense's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Trofense stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Leca
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
31 Oct
Trofense
0 : 2
AD Marco 09
24 Oct
Paredes
4 : 0
Trofense
11 Oct
AD Fafe
2 : 2
Trofense
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
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Leca

(Away)
31 Oct
Leca
2 : 0
Varzim
23 Oct
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 0
Leca
17 Oct
Penafiel
0 : 1
Leca
10 Oct
Leca
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 8 6 1 1 17:8 19
2 AD Marco 09 8 4 2 2 8:5 14
3 AD Fafe 8 3 4 1 13:7 13
4 Leca 8 4 1 3 11:9 13
5 SC Vianense 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
6 Vitoria Guimaraes B 8 2 3 3 10:10 9
7 Sao Joao de Ver 8 2 3 3 9:10 9
8 Varzim 8 3 0 5 11:13 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 8 2 2 4 8:13 8
10 Trofense 8 1 2 5 4:15 5
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 8 6 2 0 18:6 20
2 Atletico CP 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
3 Mafra 8 3 3 2 16:11 12
4 Caldas SC 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
5 Oliveirense 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
6 Santarem 8 3 1 4 9:14 10
7 Louletano 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
8 Covilha 8 1 4 3 5:8 7
9 Vitoria Sernache 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
10 Lusitano GC 8 1 3 4 6:11 6
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)