Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Trofense vs Leca

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Reis N.
8' Event
Diego Fernandes
14'
Gunjo J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between Trofense and Leca finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Trofense
20%
Draws
51%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Leca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Leca a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Trofense Clean Sheet 17%
Leca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Leca
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 6 15
Draws 11 9
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 0.69 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Leca
1:4
Jan 15, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Trofense vs Leca
0:1
Sep 20, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Leca vs Trofense
0:0
Mar 8, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Trofense vs Leca
2:3
Oct 27, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Trofense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunjo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Reis N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diego Fernandes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 15 / 100
Leca 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leca let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Trofense's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Recent resilience: Trofense stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Leca
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Leca

(Away)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
2 Paredes 4 3 0 1 6:3 9
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 4 2 2 0 7:2 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 4 0 2 2 2:5 2
10 Pacos Ferreira 4 0 1 3 4:9 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
7 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
8 Caldas SC 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 4 0 1 3 3:11 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)