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Stadium Background

Trofense vs Santarem

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Trofense Logo

Trofense

1 - 2
FT
Santarem Logo

Santarem

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ventura B.
Assist: Aguas G.
47'
Reko Silva
54' Event
Diarra M.
Assist: Cunha G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Trofense and Santarem finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santarem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Trofense
44%
Draws
20%
Santarem
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Trofense have managed 0.38 goals a game lately — Santarem are scoring more at 0.75.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Trofense Clean Sheet 24%
Santarem Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Santarem
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 7
Draws 10 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Trofense
0:1
Feb 14, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Santarem
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 37 / 100
Santarem 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Santarem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Trofense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Trofense found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Santarem
0.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
09 May
Trofense
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
01 May
Trofense
0 : 0
Amarante FC
Page 1 of 6

Santarem

(Away)
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
10 May
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Santarem
02 May
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1
Santarem
26 Apr
Santarem
1 : 1
Academica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)