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Stadium Background

Trofense vs Santarem

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Trofense Logo

Trofense

1 - 2
FT
Santarem Logo

Santarem

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ventura B.
Assist: Aguas G.
47'
Reko
54' Event
Diarra M.
Assist: Cunha G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Trofense and Santarem finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santarem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Trofense
20%
Draws
51%
Santarem
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santarem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santarem come out ahead of Trofense on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Santarem taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Trofense Clean Sheet 21%
Santarem Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Santarem
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 10 11
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.68 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Trofense
0:1
Feb 14, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Santarem
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manu
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 20 / 100
Santarem 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Santarem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santarem Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santarem let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Trofense found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Solid form: Trofense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Santarem
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Santarem

(Away)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)