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Trofense vs Varzim Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Franca F.
42'
Rego R.
46'
Sub
Lopes L. In: Roka
Out: Lopes L.

AI Match Summary

Varzim in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Trofense
15%
Draws
51%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Varzim have won more games recently than Trofense.
  • Win probability leans Varzim's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Varzim have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Trofense Clean Sheet 14%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Varzim
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 9 4
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.67 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Taça de Portugal
Varzim vs Trofense
5:1
Aug 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 10 / 100
Varzim 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varzim let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Varzim registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Trofense found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Varzim
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)