Sport Picks

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Trofense vs Varzim

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Trofense Logo

Trofense

0 - 1
FT
Varzim Logo

Varzim

Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Franca F.
42'
Rego R.
46'
Sub
Lopes L. In: Roka
Out: Lopes L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varzim in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Trofense
35%
Draws
52%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Varzim have won more games recently than Trofense.
  • Win probability leans Varzim's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Trofense Clean Sheet 25%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Varzim
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.72 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
0:1
Oct 11, 2025 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 25 / 100
Varzim 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varzim's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Trofense's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Trofense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Varzim
0.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
09 May
Trofense
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Varzim

(Away)
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
29 Jul
Tirsense
0 : 1
Varzim
15 Jul
Tondela
1 : 0
Varzim
16 May
Santarem
2 : 2
Varzim
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)