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Trofense vs Varzim - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Boloto
41' Event
Rebelo D.
Assist: Couto J.
45'
Diarra M.

AI Match Summary

Varzim in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Trofense
15%
Draws
51%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Trofense haven't matched Varzim's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Varzim a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Varzim have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Trofense Clean Sheet 11%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trofense Varzim
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 12
Draws 8 3
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.66 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Taça de Portugal
Varzim vs Trofense
5:1
Aug 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trofense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Varzim Compare

Top Goalscorer Rebelo D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trofense 10 / 100
Varzim 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trofense Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varzim's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Varzim's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Trofense scored in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trofense VS Varzim
0.38 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Trofense

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 6 4 1 1 11:7 13
2 Leca 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 AD Marco 09 6 3 1 2 6:5 10
4 SC Vianense 6 2 3 1 9:8 9
5 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
6 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 6 2 3 1 7:7 9
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
6 Louletano 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
7 Santarem 6 2 1 3 6:10 7
8 Covilha 6 1 3 2 4:6 6
9 Lusitano GC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
10 Vitoria Sernache 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)