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Trostyanets vs FC Chernihiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup
Trostyanets Logo

Trostyanets

2 - 4
FT
FC Chernihiv Logo

FC Chernihiv

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Buryak R.
35' Event
Buryak R.
46' Event
Shumylo M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-4. This leg finished 2-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Trostyanets
30%
Draws
35%
FC Chernihiv
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Trostyanets have won more games recently than FC Chernihiv.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Trostyanets have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Chernihiv, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Trostyanets Clean Sheet 68%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trostyanets FC Chernihiv
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 7
Draws 10 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.21 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 Ukrainian Cup
Trostyanets vs FC Chernihiv
2:4
Apr 26, 2025 Druha Liga
Trostyanets vs FC Chernihiv
0:0
Sep 13, 2024 Druha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Trostyanets
0:0
Nov 6, 2021 Druha Liga
Trostyanets vs FC Chernihiv
0:0
Jul 31, 2021 Druha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Trostyanets
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trostyanets Compare

Top Goalscorer Buryak R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

FC Chernihiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Novikov A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Shumylo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trostyanets 41 / 100
FC Chernihiv 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trostyanets FC Chernihiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Trostyanets Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trostyanets found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: FC Chernihiv conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Trostyanets remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

FC Chernihiv's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Trostyanets VS FC Chernihiv
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trostyanets

(Home)
06 Oct
Trostyanets
2 : 4
FC Chernihiv
27 Sept
Trostyanets
2 : 2
Rebel Kyiv
21 Sept
Penuel Kryvyi Rih
1 : 3
Trostyanets
05 Sept
SC Poltava 2
0 : 0
Trostyanets
29 Aug
Trostyanets
0 : 0
Karbon Cherkasy
Page 1 of 6

FC Chernihiv

(Away)
06 Oct
Trostyanets
2 : 4
FC Chernihiv
02 Oct
SC Poltava
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
27 Sept
Metalist Kharkiv
2 : 0
FC Chernihiv
11 Sept
UCSA
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
05 Sept
FC Chernihiv
1 : 0
Nyva Ternopil
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Ch. Odesa 0
FC Vilkhivtsi 1
TBD -
Shakhtar -
Nyva Vinnytsya 3
Rukh Lviv 2
Dynamo Kyiv -
TBD -
Bukovyna 4
Nyva Ternopil 0
TBD -
LNZ Cherkasy -
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
Victoria 3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Kolos Polonne 1
Trostyanets 2
LSTM Lutsk 1
FC Chernihiv 2
Karbon Cherkasy 1
Pokuttia Kolomyia 0
Epitsentr 2
To4ka Odessa 1
TBD -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Lozova 1
Kudrivka 6
Novyi Rozdil 2
Atlet Kiev 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Vilkhivtsi Ivano Frankivsk 1
Mayak Sarny 1
SC Poltava 0
Druzhba-Kozaky 3
Bazys Kochubiyivka 5
Reshetylivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 4
FC Kharkiv 9
Kalynivka 0
Dinaz Vyshgorod 0
Fenix Mariupol 6
Skala 1911 0
Zorya 6
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
Olympia Savyntsi 2
Kryvbas 3
Rokyta 0
Kolos Kovalivka 3
UCSA 0
Karpaty Lviv 2
Obolon 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Probiy Horodenka 3
Bratslav Vinnytsia 0
Oleksandriya 2
Rebel Kyiv 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 4
Dnister Zalishchyky 0
Livyi Bereg 3
Kulikiv 2
Palmira Odesa 1
Veres Rivne 4
Inhulets 1
1/16-finals
FC Vilkhivtsi 0
Shakhtar 3
Nyva Vinnytsya 0
Dynamo Kyiv 1
Bukovyna 0
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Victoria 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Trostyanets 2
FC Chernihiv 4
Karbon Cherkasy 0
Epitsentr 3
Polissya Zhytomyr 2
Kudrivka 0
Novyi Rozdil 3
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 1
Mayak Sarny 4
Bazys Kochubiyivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 0
FC Kharkiv 2
Fenix Mariupol 0
Zorya 2
Olympia Savyntsi 0
Kryvbas 2
Kolos Kovalivka 2
Karpaty Lviv 3
Probiy Horodenka 1
Oleksandriya 2
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1
Livyi Bereg 2
Kulikiv 0
Veres Rivne 1
1/8-finals
Shakhtar -
Dynamo Kyiv -
LNZ Cherkasy -
Metalist Kharkiv -
FC Chernihiv -
Epitsentr -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Novyi Rozdil -
Mayak Sarny -
FC Kharkiv -
Zorya -
Kryvbas -
Karpaty Lviv -
Oleksandriya -
Livyi Bereg -
Veres Rivne -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -