Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - North-West

FC Lovech

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Troyan play FC Lovech in the Third League - North-West. It looks like a close match. Recently, Troyan averaged 0.91 goals scored and 2.55 conceded. FC Lovech averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. In past meetings, Troyan won 1, FC Lovech won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 28, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Troyan and 1.38 for FC Lovech. This points to a FC Lovech double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Troyan

15%

Draws

43%

FC Lovech

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Lovech

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Troyan picked up more points recently compared to FC Lovech.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 67%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 15%

Troyan Clean Sheet 17%

FC Lovech Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Troyan	FC Lovech
Matches Played	22	30
Wins	5	7
Draws	1	2
Losses	16	21
Goals Scored	0.91	0.63
Goals Conceded	2.55	1.9
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Third League - North-West

FC Lovech vs Troyan

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

0:3

Sep 12, 2025 Third League - North-West

Troyan vs FC Lovech

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Troyan 41 / 100

FC Lovech 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Troyan FC Lovech

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Lovech or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.64

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Troyan attacking → ← attacking FC Lovech

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Troyan scored in 50% of their last 22 games.

FC Lovech let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Troyan went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FC Lovech lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 23

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lokomotiv Mezdra	22	19	1	2	62:20	58
2	Akademik Svishtov	22	17	3	2	40:11	54
3	Kom Berkovitsa	22	13	6	3	46:22	45
4	Bdin Vidin	22	14	1	7	57:26	43
5	Partizan Cerven Brjag	22	8	6	8	25:25	30
6	Pavlikeni	22	9	3	10	29:24	30
7	Etar II	22	8	5	9	32:31	29
8	Yantra Polski Trambesh	22	6	6	10	37:47	24
9	OFK Levski	22	6	5	11	32:35	23
10	Troyan	22	5	1	16	20:56	16
11	Juventus Malchika	22	2	1	19	14:72	4
12	FC Lovech	22	6	0	16	18:43	18