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Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Kauan
4'
Joao Vitor
4'
Cesar Leite M.

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Tubarao and Hercilio Luz finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Tubarao
15%
Draws
85%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Hercilio Luz a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Tubarao Clean Sheet 11%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tubarao Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 8 4
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.15 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.82 1.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Catarinense 2
Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao
2:0
Feb 24, 2019 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao
1:1
Jan 16, 2019 Catarinense
Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz
2:2
Nov 11, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tubarao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.41

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Kauan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miguel Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 0.99

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tubarao 14 / 100
Hercilio Luz 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tubarao Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tubarao scored in 61% of their last 33 games.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Hercilio Luz lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tubarao VS Hercilio Luz
1.14 Goals Scored 2
1.57 Goals Conceded 0.5
86% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tubarao

(Home)
25 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Guarani de Palhoca
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3
CA Metropolitano
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
10 Oct
Figueirense
1 : 0
Hercilio Luz
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)