Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United

Australia Australia

NPL ACT Kambah Stadium, Canberra
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Ceruti J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL ACT game between Tuggeranong United and Belconnen United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tuggeranong United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Tuggeranong United
39%
Draws
31%
Belconnen United
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Tuggeranong United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Tuggeranong United Clean Sheet 10%
Belconnen United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuggeranong United Belconnen United
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 17 9
Draws 2 5
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 2.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United
1:0
Jun 3, 2026 NPL ACT
Belconnen United vs Tuggeranong United
1:3
Jul 25, 2021 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United
0:2
May 29, 2021 NPL ACT
Belconnen United vs Tuggeranong United
1:1
Apr 11, 2021 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuggeranong United Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceruti J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Belconnen United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuggeranong United 29 / 100
Belconnen United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuggeranong United Belconnen United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuggeranong United's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Belconnen United conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Tuggeranong United has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tuggeranong United VS Belconnen United
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tuggeranong United

(Home)
25 Jul
Tigers FC
4 : 1
Tuggeranong United
22 Jul
Tuggeranong United
2 : 1
Canberra White Eagles
11 Jul
Tuggeranong United
1 : 0
Belconnen United
28 Jun
Canberra Croatia
1 : 2
Tuggeranong United
13 Jun
O'Connor Knights
2 : 3
Tuggeranong United
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Belconnen United

(Away)
25 Jul
Belconnen United
1 : 1
O'Connor Knights
11 Jul
Tuggeranong United
1 : 0
Belconnen United
04 Jul
Belconnen United
0 : 1
Canberra Juventus
20 Jun
Belconnen United
1 : 2
Queanbeyan City
13 Jun
Brindabella Blues
1 : 4
Belconnen United
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Canberra Croatia16131248:1840
2Monaro Panthers16130356:2239
3Tigers FC17112447:2135
4Tuggeranong United16110537:3433
5Canberra Juventus16100634:2930
6Queanbeyan City1682632:2526
7Canberra Olympic1652934:4317
8O'Connor Knights16511016:3116
9Belconnen United16231124:359
10Brindabella Blues16301310:469
11Canberra White Eagles17211414:487
Promotion - NPL ACT (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capital Premier League 2027 (Main)