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Tuggeranong United vs Gungahlin

Australia Australia

NPL ACT 2025 Kambah Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Tuggeranong United play Gungahlin in the NPL ACT 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tuggeranong United averaged 1.91 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. Gungahlin averaged 1.73 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. In past meetings, Tuggeranong United won 2, Gungahlin won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 27, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.56 for Tuggeranong United and 1.94 for Gungahlin. This points to a Tuggeranong United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tuggeranong United
15%
Draws
38%
Gungahlin
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tuggeranong United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Tuggeranong United picked up more points recently compared to Gungahlin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.56 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Tuggeranong United Clean Sheet 10%
Gungahlin Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuggeranong United Gungahlin
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 3 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.91 1.73
Goals Conceded 2.18 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2025 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Gungahlin
2:1
May 30, 2025 NPL ACT
Gungahlin vs Tuggeranong United
2:4
Apr 6, 2025 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Gungahlin
0:0
Jul 21, 2024 NPL ACT
Gungahlin vs Tuggeranong United
1:0
May 26, 2024 NPL ACT
Tuggeranong United vs Gungahlin
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuggeranong United Compare

Top Goalscorer Nealon S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Gungahlin Compare

Top Goalscorer Yoshida S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuggeranong United 44 / 100
Gungahlin 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuggeranong United Gungahlin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tuggeranong United or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tuggeranong United attacking → ← attacking Gungahlin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuggeranong United scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

Gungahlin let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Tuggeranong United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gungahlin lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 41
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Canberra Croatia21170482:2651
2Tigers FC21134450:3343
3Monaro Panthers21133564:2442
4Tuggeranong United2176831:5027
5Gungahlin21741036:6025
6Queanbeyan City2166920:3524
7Yoogali21431431:4915
8O'Connor Knights21321633:7011