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Tupa vs Santa Fe SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
77' Event
Bongarti de Souza K.
86' Event
Sella P.

AI Match Summary

Santa Fe SP in this Paulista B matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Fe SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tupa
15%
Draws
42%
Santa Fe SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tupa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Santa Fe SP haven't matched Tupa's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tupa's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Tupa Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Fe SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tupa Santa Fe SP
Matches Played 32 10
Wins 13 2
Draws 4 0
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.31 1
Goals Conceded 1.56 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Paulista B
Tupa vs Santa Fe SP
1:2
May 15, 2026 Paulista B
Santa Fe SP vs Tupa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tupa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sella P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Santa Fe SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Bongarti de Souza K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tupa 50 / 100
Santa Fe SP 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tupa Santa Fe SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tupa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tupa found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (32 games).

Santa Fe SP has conceded goals in 100% of their last 10 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Difficult form: Santa Fe SP registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tupa VS Santa Fe SP
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tupa

(Home)
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0
Tupa
28 Jun
Tupa
0 : 2
Independente SP
20 Jun
Tupa
1 : 2
Santa Fe SP
14 Jun
Riopretano
0 : 1
Tupa
06 Jun
America SP
3 : 1
Tupa
Page 1 of 7

Santa Fe SP

(Away)
20 Jun
Tupa
1 : 2
Santa Fe SP
12 Jun
Santa Fe SP
1 : 3
America SP
05 Jun
Assisense
4 : 2
Santa Fe SP
29 May
Santa Fe SP
0 : 2
Jose Bonifacio EC
24 May
Riopretano
2 : 1
Santa Fe SP
Page 1 of 2

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jose Bonifacio EC 10 6 4 0 17:6 22
2 America SP 10 5 4 1 13:7 19
3 Assisense 10 3 5 2 17:15 14
4 Tupa 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
5 Riopretano 10 1 4 5 9:16 7
6 Santa Fe SP 10 2 0 8 10:20 6
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independente SP 10 8 0 2 37:7 24
2 Matonense 10 7 1 2 28:10 22
3 Sao Carlos 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
4 Santacruzense 10 4 2 4 19:13 14
5 Mogi Mirim 10 4 0 6 15:15 12
6 Catanduvense 10 0 0 10 4:66 0
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo SP 10 7 2 1 13:6 23
2 Paulinense 10 5 0 5 9:16 15
3 Audax-SP 10 5 1 4 15:9 13
4 Paulinia FU 10 3 1 6 11:14 10
5 Votoraty SP 10 2 1 7 12:19 7
6 Guarulhos 10 5 1 4 19:15 4
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itaqua 10 8 1 1 21:6 25
2 Maua FC 10 4 4 2 20:15 16
3 Uniao Mogi 10 5 2 3 14:13 14
4 Manthiqueira 10 4 2 4 17:17 14
5 Mauaense 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
6 Barcelona SP 10 0 0 10 5:26 0
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)