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Turan vs Karvan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tovuz şəhər stadionu, Tovuz
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Match Events

15' Event
Serrano A.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Mickels J. In: Abdullayev S.
Out: Mickels J.
46'
Sub
Masimov V. In: Ngwisani M.
Out: Masimov V.

AI Match Summary

Turan in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Turan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Turan
15%
Draws
12%
Karvan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Turan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Turan lately — more wins on the board than Karvan.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Turan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Turan here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Turan Clean Sheet 68%
Karvan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Karvan
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 3
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 22
Goals Scored 1.31 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Karvan
1:0
Feb 9, 2026 Premier League
Turan vs Karvan
1:0
Oct 24, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Turan
1:2
May 11, 2014 I Liqa
Karvan vs Turan
2:0
Sep 28, 2013 I Liqa
Turan vs Karvan
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 77 / 100
Karvan 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Karvan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Turan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karvan let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Turan's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Karvan has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Karvan
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
14 Aug
Turan
1 : 0
Gabala
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
Page 1 of 6

Karvan

(Away)
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)