Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Turan vs Tobol

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Cup 2025 Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Miladinovic I.
50'
Abdumazhidov O.
53'
Milojko G.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Tobol advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Turan
28%
Draws
22%
Tobol
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Turan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Turan come out ahead of Tobol on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Turan taking it.
  • Turan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tobol, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tobol have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Turan Clean Sheet 68%
Tobol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Tobol
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 3 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 2.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Turan
2:0
May 25, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Tobol
1:2
May 14, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Turan vs Tobol
0:2
Oct 23, 2024 Premier League
Turan vs Tobol
0:2
Mar 2, 2024 Premier League
Tobol vs Turan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Henen D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miladinovic I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 59 / 100
Tobol 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Tobol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turan scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Tobol conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Turan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Tobol
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
30 Jul
Khan Tengri
0 : 1
Turan
24 Jul
Turan
2 : 1
Tobol 2
16 Jul
Arys
0 : 4
Turan
10 Jul
Shakhter Karagandy
1 : 0
Turan
03 Jul
Turan
2 : 2
Jaiyq
Page 1 of 6

Tobol

(Away)
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1
FK Panevezys
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0
Atyrau
23 Jul
FK Panevezys
1 : 1
Tobol
18 Jul
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
Tobol
12 Jul
Tobol
3 : 1
Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Kyzylzhar1
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
Ulytau0
Yelimay Semey3
Ordabasy2
Khan Tengri0
Kairat Almaty3
Kaspij Aktau0
Turan2
Atyrau0
Tobol1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Zhenis1
Aktobe0
Okzhetpes1
FC Astana2
Quarter-finals
Kyzylzhar1
Yelimay Semey0
Ordabasy1
Kairat Almaty0
Turan0
Tobol2
Zhenis2
FC Astana1
Semi-finals
Kyzylzhar0
Ordabasy1
Tobol3
Zhenis2
Final
Ordabasy0
Tobol2