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Turegano vs La Virgen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 8
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Match Events

43' Event
Carpintero I.
80'
Carton H.
80'
Carton H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 8 game between Turegano and La Virgen finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward La Virgen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Turegano
30%
Draws
52%
La Virgen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: La Virgen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • La Virgen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans La Virgen's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Turegano Clean Sheet 19%
La Virgen Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turegano La Virgen
Matches Played 11 29
Wins 1 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 0.91 1.03
Goals Conceded 2 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Turegano vs La Virgen
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turegano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

La Virgen Compare

Top Goalscorer Carpintero I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turegano 28 / 100
La Virgen 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turegano La Virgen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Virgen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turegano's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 11 recent games.

La Virgen has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Turegano has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Turegano VS La Virgen
0.71 Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.63
57% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Turegano

(Home)
10 Oct
Villaralbo
2 : 2
Turegano
03 Oct
Turegano
1 : 1
Arandina
26 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca B
0 : 0
Turegano
19 Sept
Turegano
0 : 1
La Virgen
12 Sept
Turegano
1 : 3
Guijuelo
Page 1 of 3

La Virgen

(Away)
10 Oct
La Virgen
1 : 0
Mansilles
04 Oct
Bembibre
2 : 0
La Virgen
26 Sept
La Virgen
0 : 1
Palencia CA
19 Sept
Turegano
0 : 1
La Virgen
12 Sept
La Virgen
4 : 1
Calasanz de Soria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Burgos CF B 5 4 1 0 9:1 13
2 Palencia CA 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
3 Leonesa B 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
4 Bembibre 6 4 1 1 9:5 13
5 Santa Marta Tormes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
6 La Virgen 6 4 0 2 8:5 12
7 Mansilles 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
8 Arandina 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
9 Palencia CF 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Almazan 6 1 4 1 10:12 7
11 Calasanz de Soria 5 2 1 2 7:9 7
12 Villaralbo 6 1 3 2 11:9 6
13 Guijuelo 5 2 0 3 6:5 6
14 Salamanca CF UDS B 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
15 Turegano 6 0 3 3 5:9 3
16 Unionistas de Salamanca B 6 0 2 4 5:11 2
17 Mirandes B 6 0 1 5 2:9 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 5 0 1 4 1:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 (Play Offs)