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Turkey vs Italy - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Bursa
Turkey Logo

Turkey

1 - 4
FT
Italy Logo

Italy

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Bastoni A.
22' Event
Frattesi D.
27' Event
Kayode M.
Assist: Esposito F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Italy in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Turkey
15%
Draws
65%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Italy average 1.83 goals a game right now, well clear of Turkey's 1.68.
  • Model gives Italy a 65% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Italy have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Turkey Clean Sheet 20%
Italy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turkey Italy
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.68 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Turkey
3:1
Sep 28, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Turkey vs Italy
1:4
Jun 4, 2024 Friendly International
Italy vs Turkey
0:0
Mar 29, 2022 Friendly International
Turkey vs Italy
2:3
Jun 11, 2021 Euro
Turkey vs Italy
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turkey Compare

Top Goalscorer Yilmaz B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Bastoni A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frattesi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turkey 10 / 100
Italy 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turkey Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Turkey scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Italy let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Turkey went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turkey VS Italy
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Turkey

(Home)
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1
Turkey
02 Oct
Belgium
3 : 0
Turkey
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1
France
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
Page 1 of 7

Italy

(Away)
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1
Turkey
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)