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Turkey vs Romania

World World

World Championship 2026 Besiktas Park, Istanbul
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Dragomir V.
53' Event
Kadioglu F.
Assist: Guler A.
66'
Sub
Marin R. In: Tanase F.
Out: Marin R.

AI Match Summary

Turkey in this World Championship 2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Turkey
15%
Draws
37%
Romania
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Turkey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Turkey have won more games recently than Romania.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Turkey taking it.
  • Turkey have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Turkey, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Turkey Clean Sheet 16%
Romania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turkey Romania
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 18 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.8 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 World Championship
Turkey vs Romania
1:0
Nov 9, 2017 Friendly International
Romania vs Turkey
2:0
Sep 10, 2013 World Championship
Romania vs Turkey
0:2
Oct 12, 2012 World Championship
Turkey vs Romania
0:1
Aug 11, 2010 Friendly International
Turkey vs Romania
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turkey Compare

Top Goalscorer Kadioglu F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Romania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turkey 39 / 100
Romania 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turkey Romania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Turkey Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turkey's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Romania conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Turkey stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turkey VS Romania
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Turkey

(Home)
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
20 Jun
Turkey
0 : 1
Paraguay
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0
Turkey
06 Jun
Venezuela
1 : 2
Turkey
01 Jun
Turkey
4 : 0
North Macedonia
Page 1 of 6

Romania

(Away)
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
02 Jun
Georgia
1 : 1
Romania
31 Mar
Slovakia
2 : 0
Romania
26 Mar
Turkey
1 : 0
Romania
18 Nov
Romania
7 : 1
San Marino
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Wales 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2
Italy 2
Northern Ireland 0
Ukraine 1
Sweden 3
Poland 2
Albania 1
Slovakia 3
Kosovo 4
Turkey 1
Romania 0
Czech Republic 3
Ireland 2
Denmark 4
North Macedonia 0
Final
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2
Italy 1
Sweden 3
Poland 2
Kosovo 0
Turkey 1
Czech Republic 3
Denmark 2