Sport Picks
Match Events
37'
37'
Sergeev I.
Assist: Jiyanov R.
43'
43'
Tirkisow S.
44'
44'
Sergeev I.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Uzbekistan advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Turkmenistan
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Turkmenistan haven't matched Uzbekistan's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Turkmenistan's way, sitting at 90%.
- Uzbekistan arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Uzbekistan, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Uzbekistan have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Turkmenistan Clean Sheet 12%
Uzbekistan Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Turkmenistan | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 33 |
| Wins | 6 | 19 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.40 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.40 | 0.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 2, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan
1:2
Jun 6, 2024 World Championship
Uzbekistan vs Turkmenistan
3:1
Nov 16, 2023 World Championship
Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan
1:3
Jun 14, 2023 CAFA Nations Cup
Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan
0:2
Jan 13, 2019 Asian Cup
Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan
0:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Turkmenistan Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7
Uzbekistan Compare
Top Goalscorer Sergeev I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Turkmenistan 83 / 100
Uzbekistan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TKM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Uzbekistan's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.
Turkmenistan scored in 57% of their last 28 games.
Uzbekistan let in goals in 48% of their last 33 matches.
Scoring Trends
Turkmenistan VS Uzbekistan
1.4 Goals Scored 2.13
1.4 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 75%
80% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Turkmenistan
(Home) 31 Mar
Thailand
2 : 1 Turkmenistan
18 Nov
Turkmenistan
3 : 1 Chinese Taipei
14 Oct
Turkmenistan
2 : 1 Sri Lanka
09 Oct
Sri Lanka
1 : 0 Turkmenistan
05 Sept
Turkmenistan
1 : 2 Oman
Page 1 of 6
18 Nov
Turkmenistan
3 : 1 Chinese Taipei
14 Oct
Turkmenistan
2 : 1 Sri Lanka
05 Sept
Turkmenistan
1 : 2 Oman
02 Sept
Turkmenistan
1 : 2 Uzbekistan
10 Jun
Turkmenistan
3 : 1 Thailand
Page 1 of 3
Uzbekistan
(Away) 27 Jun
D.R. Congo
3 : 1 Uzbekistan
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0 Uzbekistan
18 Jun
Uzbekistan
1 : 3 Colombia
08 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 1 Uzbekistan
02 Jun
Canada
2 : 0 Uzbekistan
Page 1 of 7
27 Jun
D.R. Congo
3 : 1 Uzbekistan
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0 Uzbekistan
08 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 1 Uzbekistan
02 Jun
Canada
2 : 0 Uzbekistan
02 Sept
Turkmenistan
1 : 2 Uzbekistan
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Oman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 4 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | 1 |
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iran | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 7 |
| 2 | India | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 4 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 4 | Afghanistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | 1 |
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)